Storm Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

328 
FZAK51 PAJK 060828 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-061500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 980 MB LOW W OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN CONTINUE N
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SE ALASKA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING. 

$$

PKZ011-061500-
GLACIER BAY-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-061500-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-061500-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-061500-
ICY STRAIT-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-061500-
CROSS SOUND-
1110 400 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 9 FT. W
SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-061500-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-061500-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...S 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ033-061500-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT...
EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ034-061500-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-061500-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ036-061500-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1110 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
607 AM AKST WED JAN 5 2011

.SHORT TERM...TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING W OF THE CHARLOTTES WILL HEAD NWD BUT MODELS
DISAGREE GREATLY HOW FAR W THE LOW WILL TRACK. BASED ON
SAT/OBS...THINK THE LOW WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE CAPE DECISION
AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...THEN TURN MORE NNE THRU THE CENTRAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAD IT. THE MODELS CLOSEST TO THIS TRACK WERE THE 00Z
GEM/06Z GFS/06Z NAM...WITH 00Z UKMET AND EC KEEPING LOW FURTHER
W. BUT THE EC AND UKMET HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY EWD WITH THE 00Z
RUN WHILE OTHERS HAVE TRENDED WWD...CONVERGING ON A TRACK TO NEAR
CAPE DECISION. THIS LOW TRACK WAS BASIS FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

 WITH ABOVE IN MIND...MAIN CONCERNS WERE WINDS MAINLY ON S AND E
SIDE OF THE LOW...AND PTYPE ON W SIDE OF LOW TRACK ESPECIALLY
INLAND AREAS. ITS LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD OF ADVY LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE AFFECTING THE SRN AREA TODAY...WITH PEAK THREAT BETWEEN 17-21Z
AS LOW IS MOVING BY THEM TO THEIR W. HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVYS FOR
THE SRN THREE ZONES FOR THE 15Z-01Z PERIOD...AS THERE COULD ALSO
BE A BIT OF STRONGER WIND IN A WRAP AROUND BAND DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE GALES FOR CLARENCE STRAIT FOR MOST OF THE DAY
TOO. WINDS MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SHIFT FROM SLY TO NLY EARLY
TODAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE REMAINING SRN AREAS GET SCA LEVEL E-SE WINDS TODAY.
AS LOW PULLS NWD AND INLAND WSW SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE SE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 AS FOR PTYPE...PAJN-PAGS-PAOH AREAS HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW...AND IT IS PROBABLE THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT...AND PRECIP RATES AROUND .05 IN/HR LIKELY
ESPECIALLY PAJN/PAOH AREAS TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH RAIN AND SNOW
FOR THESE AREAS AS CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE
ZONE. SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO BE AROUND 3 INCHES AROUND PAJN WITH AN
INCH OR 2 IN THE PAGS AND PAOH AREAS. THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVIER
AMTS AROUND PAJN DUE TO FLOW LIKELY BECOMING SWLY BY LATE EVENING
AND UPSLOPE ENHANCING PRECIP RATES...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT STRUCTURE/TRACK LOW TAKES WHICH REMAINS TRICKY AT THIS
POINT.

 OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP OVER THE FAR NRN AREA DIMINISH
THIS MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE...WITH THE PAYA AREA SEEING
THEIR PRECIP DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS OFFSHORE SHIFT OCCURS
THEN. ALL IN ALL...NOT VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MANY ASPECTS OF
THE FORECAST...BUT SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT ADVY LEVEL WINDS WILL
OCCUR  OVER THE SRN AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY AND THEN DIGS SE FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE
A LOW DIGS SE THURSDAY AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH
PANHANDLE. A DEVELOPING 500 MB HIGH BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF
AND BECOMES AN IMPRESSIVE CLOSED OFF HIGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA BY
MONDAY AND NEARING 580 DM. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE DRY AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE ARCTIC AIRMASS
AND 1055+ MB SURFACE HIGH OVER WETERN CANADA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A RETROGRADING LOW FROM WESTERN CANADA TO NE GULF COULD
BE INTERESTING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT SINCE IT WAS A NEW
SOLUTION OPTED STAY THE DRY COURSE FOR NOW.

EXPECT PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF PANHANDLE THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH JUST CHANCE TO THE NORTH. WILL SEE DRYING FROM
THE NORTH FRIDAY WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH COLD AIR FILITERING IN WILL SEE PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW CENTRAL THU AND SOUTHERN FRI. WITH DRIER AIR
SPREADING SOUTH AS WELL LIMITED SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE.

SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS FOLLOWS BY LATE WEEKEND WITH
NORTHEAST GRADIENTS INCREASING. EXPECT SOLID GALES IN NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS BY SAT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. COASTAL AREA WILL SEE DECREASING
SWELL THU.

USED THE EC FOR GRIDS ALTHOUGH THE 06Z GFS AND NAM LOOKED REALLY
GOOD. HAD TO UP EC WINDS BY AT LEAST 5 KT. IN EARLY PERIODS HAD
TO INCREASE POPS BUT CUT BACK HPC POPS FOR LATER PERIODS. PLAYED
AROUND WITH DAYS 2-3 TEMPS AND LEFT REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027>029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-043-051-052.

&&

RWT/MM