Small Craft Advisory 96, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKST SAT JAN 29 2011

.SHORT TERM...CLEAR AND DRY STILL REMAIN THE RULE OF THE DAY
WITH MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE ENJOYING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DO SHOW A AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE RIDGE. EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SHEAR APART
AS THEY CONTINUE TO FIGHT THEIR WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE. ON A MORE
LOCALIZED SCALE, OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE TO FLOW OUT OF THE USUAL
AREAS. SKAGWAY IS THE WINDY SPOT THIS MORNING WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE OTHER BREEZY
AREAS ARE LYNN CANAL, CROSS SOUND, AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
DOUGLAS.

 THE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN ALONG THE OUTER COAST
TONIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF THAT UPPER TROUGH MOVE BY. THE UPPER
RIDGE AS A WHOLE AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF IT WILL BE
STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. BEHIND IT A
FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND BE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

 OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS THE NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES. THE WIND ADVISORY UP FOR SKAGWAY
CONTINUES TO NOON TOMORROW, BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CALMER
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT LIGHTENS
UP A BIT. THE MINOR MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT GOING ON NEAR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW, BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE CRITICAL LEVEL DOES NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 20 TO 30 KT.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WINDS IN THE NORTH-SOUTH CHANNELS SHOULD BE
CALMING DOWN AS THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION BECOMES MORE EASTERLY
DUE TO THE HIGH POSITIONING ITSELF MORE TO OUR EAST.

 MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT TO BAD IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY WITH ONLY
A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN INITIALIZATION OF THE SOME OF
THE FEATURES. DECIDED TO USE A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR THE UPDATES
TODAY WHICH ONLY RESULTED IN SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS THE RAISING OF THE WIND
INTENSITY AROUND SKAGWAY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FOR THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...THERE IS A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK BUT THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE GULF AND OVER THE PANHANDLE SUN
NIGHT THROUGH WED. SO WITH THAT SAID THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FROM
SUN THROUGH WED THEN ABOUT AVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE
WAS NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST DUE TO THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WHERE CHANGES WERE MADE DID USED THE 12Z GFS THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON THEN AN BLEND OF THE EC/GFS THROUGH DAY 4 AND THEN
HPC THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE THREAT OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
MONDAY AND BE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TO
GIVE A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WITH AS A STRONG WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO
GALES THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE AS MULTIPLE FRONTS LIFT OVER
THE GULF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AFTER THAT MOSTLY
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PERSIST. OVER THE INNER CHANNELS NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BUT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER BC
SLIDES TO THE SE THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT AND
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS AS THE SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS ON THE STRONG SIDE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-035-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

EAL/ABJ