Small Craft Advisory 796, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
542 AM AKST SUN DEC 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LOW
NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM COAST MOUNTAINS. A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN YUKON INTO THE
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT...A HEALTHY
MOISTURE PLUME RIDING AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. JUST BEHIND THE EXITING WARM FRONT...AREAS OF FOG AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREAS. SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
REGAINED ITS STRENGTH BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW ACROSS BERING STRAIT
AND THE HIGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF TODAY AND MAKES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. MADE A FEW COSMETIC TOUCHES AND REFRESHED
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF AS THEY MADE
A GOOD CONSENSUS. AS THE DEEP LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BERING STRAIT...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BRING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CAN BE HEAVY
AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ARRIVE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE A BIT LATER
TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOST OUTSIDE WATERS AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SMALL CRAFT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER OUTER WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...A FRONTAL BAND WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST SLOWLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS A STREAM OF
MOISTURE MOVING ONSHORE WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL LOWS OR IMPULSES IN
THE FLOW RESULTING BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN. BEHIND THIS BAND THERE
IS A COOL DOWN WITH THE COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SOME CLEARING AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHS FOR THE
YAKUTAT REGION AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE EARLY MONDAY
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN WARM BACK UP AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. RETURNING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BAND
SPREADS SOME PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK AND TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>033-042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

AHN/BEZENEK