Small Craft Advisory 754, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKST TUE NOV 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...BAND OF SHOWERS RUNNING WEST NORTHWEST CONTINUE
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. YAKUTAT ALREADY HAS RECEIVED
ROUGHLY 14 INCHES SINCE IT STARTED AND IS EXPECTED PERSIST AT
LEAST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS EVENING. REST OF PANHANDLE
PICKING UP SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN/MIX (FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION).
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL OF AIR RACING ACROSS THE GULF.
THE MID GULF BUOYS ARE ARE IN THE UPPER 20S AT 46085 AND FURTHER
WEST AT 46001 IN THE UPPER TEENS. (46184 A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IS
STILL 35) THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE WORKING THEIR WAY EASTWARD. AT
THE LED EDGE OF THE GOLD POOL THERE IS A BAND OF ENHANCED SHOWERS
THAT WILL BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTHEAST GULF FOR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO INHERENT INSTABILITY OF COLD AIR
OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL BE CARRYING ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTERN PKZ052 SOUTH TO PKZ041. DID NOT SEE
IMPRESSIVE CAPE NUMBERS FOR THE CONVECTION BUT WILL MENTION AS AN
ISOLATED FEATURE. LYNN CANAL WINDS TAKING A MINOR BREATHER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD SEE THEM CREEPING BACK UP FOR WEDNESDAY TO MAX
SMALL CRAFT TO LOWER GALES...JUST CARRYING SMALL CRAFT RIGHT NOW.
A FEW OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE HAVE BE LOCALLY HEAVY BUT
SHOULD SEE THEM LIGHTENING UP THROUGH THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR LONGER RANGE...STARTING WED
NIGHT INTO THU EVENING. THE ISSUE IS WHETHER THE UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN GULF PHASES WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING PAST IT TO
THE S. THE 12Z GFS/UKMET/GEM ALL SHOW NEAR FULLY PHASED TROFS AND
BRING SFC LOW INTO THE S-CENTRAL PANHANDLE THU...WITH STEADY
PRECIP AS FAR N AS THE PAJN AREA. NAM SHOWS LESS PHASING AND KEEPS
LOW TRACK LIMITED TO SERN CORNER OF AREA AND PRECIP FROM THE LOW
OVER THE SRN AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS NO PHASING AND ONLY
BRUSHES THE SERN CORNER OF AREA WITH STEADIER PRECIP. WHILE THERE
WAS A MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT AGREED ON THE STRONGLY PHASED TROF
IDEA...THE GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGESTED THAT PHASING WOULD NOT OCCUR AS
10/12 MEMBERS TAKE SFC LOW WELL TO THE S OF THE AREA...CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF TRACK. INITIALLY THIS LED ME TO BELIEVE THE ECMWF IDEA
GIVEN SUCH STRONG ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...BUT AFTER COORD WITH SHORT
TERMER AND WFO PAFC...DECIDED TO USE A 12Z NAM/GFS BLEND...WHICH
WOULD BE A SOMEWHAT MIDDLE GROUND IDEA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON
THIS IS ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER. KEPT THE GFS/NAM BLEND GOING
UNTIL 00Z SAT...THEN WENT WITH LATEST HPC BEYOND THEN.

 SO...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS YET. DID PUT OUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
MENTIONING POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SRN AREA LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THU EVENING DEPENDING ON WHERE LOW GOES. IF CURRENT
TRACK IDEA IN THE GRIDS HOLDS UP...HEAVY SNOW BAND WOULD SET UP
ALONG AND JUST EITHER SIDE OF A PAPG-PAKW LINE. FURTHER TO THE
NW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT BUT THEY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH LATER THU DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG LOW TO THE S GETS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THU EVENING...WILL HAVE ONE OR TWO
TROFS MOVING THRU THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERY WX LIKELY LATE THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT.

 NEXT BIG SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE AREA FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR N ALONG THE
COAST THE LOW GETS BEFORE MOVING INLAND...WITH GFS A LITTLE
FURTHER S THAN THE ECMWF. USED HPC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THEY TOOK
ENSEMBLE APPROACH...BRINGING LOW INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL SE AK.
LOOKS LIKE MOST PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE
AREA...WITH SNOW LIKELY OVER THE NW SIDE OF THE PRECIP.

 AFTER THAT LOW MOVES INLAND...PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE LARGE
SCALE TROF AXIS RETROGRADES WWD TO THE ERN BERING SEA AND WRN
PUBLIC...AND WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL PROBABLY START AS SNOW OVER THE NRN AND ERN
AREAS SUN NIGHT BUT LIKELY GO OVER TO RAIN MON. ENDED UP BUMPING
UP TEMPS SOME ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT FOR THE EXPECTED
WARMER AIRMASS MOVING IN. COULD BE A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST FRONT MOVES THRU AREA. AFTER THIS
FRONT MOVES INLAND A LITTLE COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS COLD AS CURRENT AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE W AS ARCTIC
AIRMASSES WILL TEND TO BE LOCKED UP OVER NWRN HALF OF AK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-033>036-041>043-
     051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT

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