Small Craft Advisory 752, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
304 PM AKST MON NOV 21 2011

.SHORT TERM...TAIL END OF THE STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A
PORTION OF THE LOW MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A
PORTION MOVED INLAND AND DISSIPATED. SNOW JUST GETTING READY TO
SPREAD INTO THE YAKUTAT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE...THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE SEEING A SMATTERING OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR
LOCALLY ALL SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW STILL FALLING OVER THE LYNN CANAL
REGION AND NORTHERN GLACIER BAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PROVIDING AN OVERRUNNING
SITUATION... ALSO EXPECT A SMALL POCKET OF SNOW TO PERSIST IN THE
JUNEAU REGION AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE CHANNEL AND AUKE
BAY... COULD SEE A LOCAL MIX OF PRECIPITATION THERE.

 FOR TUESDAY RAIN (OR A MIX) SHOWERS (ALL SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS BECOMING SNOW OR MORE MIXED WITH SNOW AS TEMPERATURES
COOL DOWN AGAIN. A COLD TROUGH WITH AN ENHANCED BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL APPROACH THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS THEN ALONG THE OUTER COAST.

 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN DIXON ENTRANCE REGION WERE
VIGOROUS FOR SOME LIGHTNING BUT NOT SEEING THAT CONTINUE SO NOT
PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER SLEET POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

 NORTH WIND GRADIENT FIRMING BACKUP OVERNIGHT SO WILL BE KEEPING
GALES IN LYNN CANAL WITH SOME AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE LYNN CANAL AREA.

.LONG TERM...DEEP LAYER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND ERN
PAC THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE A COLD
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF WITH SHORTWAVES SPINNING NE INTO THE AREA
DURING MID-LATE WEEK. FOR THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A SHARP UPPER
TROF OVER THE GULF AND ERN PAC WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
STORM OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS VERY GOOD SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE ON
PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN UPPER FEATURES.

 FOR TUE NIGHT INTO FRI...A TROF WILL MOVE NE THRU THE AREA TUE
NIGHT. ALSO...ARCTIC FRONT WILL HANG AROUND THE PAJN AREA DURING
THIS TIME. DECENT QVEC CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE AREA TUE EVENING. EXPECT BAND OF PRECIP TO LIFT NE THRU THE
AREA TUE NIGHT...AND COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY NEAR TIME OF TROF
PASSAGE TUE EVENING. THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW FROM THE PAJN
AREA NWD. THINK TROF WILL PASS THRU FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMS TO BELOW ADVY LEVELS HOWEVER. WILL HAVE A FEW MORE TROFS
LIFTING NE THRU THE AREA WED INTO FRI WITH BANDS OF PRECIP WITH
THEM. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NRN HALF
WITH MIXED PRECIP OVER THE S.

 FOR THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG BUT WEAKENING
LOW MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THE GFS
BEING SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WHILE THE LOW IS WELL
SW OF THE AREA. THEY AREA VERY CLOSE ON IDEA THAT LOW WILL TRACK
INLAND NEAR PASI AREA THEN JUST SE OF PAJN AREA...BUT IT WILL BE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ021-
     022.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ019-020.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031-033>036-041>043-
     051>053.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT