Small Craft Advisory 565, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
558 AM AKDT FRI SEP 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...STILL ON TIME TO DROP THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AT
ABOUT 7 AM. THESE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE STILL IN EFFECT AS THIS
PRODUCT IS BEING PREPARED AND ARE LISTED IN THE TABLE BELOW. NOTE
THE MARINE WINDS INCLUDING STORMS ARE VERIFYING AT THIS TIME AND
WILL ALSO END LATER THIS MORNING.

 THE EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY REACHED A PEAK
DEPTH OF ABOUT 958 MB AND BEGAN TO FILL BEFORE PASSING NNE
BETWEEN CDE AND PAAP ABOUT 12Z. THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR POPULATION
CENTERS THIS MORNING WERE GUSTS OF 64 MPH AT PAKT AT 11Z AND 62KT
AT PAHY AT 12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE ABOUT 975 MB INVOF PAFE ABT
15Z BUT FILLING OUT IN THE NRN PNHDL ABOUT 18Z. THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS LOW IS STILL RAPIDLY NORTH AND WILL REDEVELOP A
SFC LOW OF ABOUT 988 MB ABOUT 200 MI NE OF CYXY AT 00Z. THE
FORECASTS INCLUDE SEVERAL ZONES WITH STRONG WIND SHIFTS FM N TO S
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TRACKS TO THE NNE.

 BUOY 46205 REACHED A 39 FT SEA STATE AT 0900Z, AND PLAYED A ROLE
IN SETTING THE INITIAL SEA STATE FOR MARINE ZONE OF 28 FT FOR
THIS MORNING.

 HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED BUT IS TRANSIENT THEREFORE LIMITING HOW
MUCH STAGES RISE. PAKT FOR EXAMPLE HAD A 0750Z OB WITH +R AND THE
ONE-HOUR PRECIP WAS 0.23. HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT RAIN HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY OCCURRED.

.LONG TERM...AFTER THE SERIES OF STORMS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF AK AND ERN PAC THROUGH
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS BUT POLAR JET WILL REMAIN TO THE S OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME. WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT STRENGTH LOW MOVE INTO
THE SE GULF MON OR TUE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE GULF. LATEST MODELS ARE
GENERALLY TRENDING EWD WITH THE LOW TRACK BUT DO NOT WANT TO SHIFT
IT AS FAR E AS THEY SHOW RIGHT NOW UNTIL THEY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THIS. AFTER COORD WITH WFO PAFC...ENDED UP USING THE
12Z ECMWF FOR 12Z SAT TO 00Z MON...THEN USED LATEST HPC FOR 12Z
MON ON OUT. THIS DID SHIFT THE MON-TUE LOW A BIT TO THE E BUT NOT
AS FAR AS THE 00Z MODELS DID.

 FOR SAT INTO SUN...WILL SEE A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE N OF THE AREA
AND A WEAK LOW MOVES BY TO THE S OF THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...AND BY SUN THE ERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CLEARING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE SAT NIGHT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY FROST. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
PATCHY FROST IN THE USUAL VALLEY AREAS SUN NIGHT.

 NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW SHOULD SPREAD MORE RAIN NWD INTO THE AREA
MON AND MON NIGHT. THE EWD SHIFT TO THE LOW TRACK DIMINISHES THE
PRECIP THREAT TO THE NWRN PART OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. ONCE
THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WILL SEE A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AND AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP AREA WIDE. ALL IN
ALL...IT IS LOOKING LIKE A QUIETER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK OR SO.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ023-
     026>028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026-027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ019-022-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018-029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ033-036-041.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-031-032-034-035-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-043-051-052.

&&

JBT/RWT