Small Craft Advisory 487, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
416 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER IS RATHER QUIET OVER THE PANHANDLE AS WE
ARE CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE REMAINS OF LAST NIGHTS
SYSTEM ARE JUST NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. WE ARE LEFT WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS STILL UNDER
COMPLETELY OVERCAST SKIES WHILE THE SOUTH AND YAKUTAT ARE
ENJOYING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. WINDS HAVE MOSTLY DIED
DOWN FROM LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM BUT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
CROPPED UP IN LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY AS A RIDGE IS BUILDING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. ELDRED ROCK HAS COME IN WITH UPWARDS OF
30 KT WINDS WITH 40 KT GUSTS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE REMAINING RAIN OVER THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER NIGHT AS THE REMAINING UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES INTO CANADA THIS EVENING. THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A RATHER
DRY DAY OVER THE PANHANDLE AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM AS SW ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES AT MOST LEVELS, BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW. WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS, THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME FOG COULD FORM IN VARIOUS AREAS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW.

WHILE RAIN WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THE PANHANDLE INTO
TOMORROW, THE WIND PARTICULARLY FOR THE GULF TOMORROW WILL BE A
PROBLEM. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL NOT HAVE REACHED THE PANHANDLE
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT, BUT THE GULF
WATERS WILL START FEELING THE BRUNT OF THE WINDS. I AM EXPECTING
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE REST OF THE GULF. IN THE INNER CHANNELS
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THE 20 KT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
LYNN CANAL THIS EVENING AS STRONG SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS
CONTINUE. THOSE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MODEL AGREEMENT WAS GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ONLY
A FEW DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE EC FOR
FORECAST UPDATES TODAY AS IT DID A BETTER JOB REPRESENTING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY/...
A GALE FORCE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
INCREASE THE E-W PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KT THROUGH CROSS SOUND. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO 14FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SEAS OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE
LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH. RAINFALL WILL EASE INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTH WITH JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS...HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ROUGH IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS. RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND LATE SATURDAY...BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES...AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKER THAN FRIDAYS LOW...IT WILL MOVE IN CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLE CAUSING CHANNELS OPEN TO THE SOUTH TO HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL. AS THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES AND THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...RAIN
WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY
THE RIDGE WEAKENS RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR EXPECTED
PRECIP...KEEPING CONFIDENCE LEVELS ABOVE AVERAGE. BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK LATEST RUNS START TO HAVE DIFFERENCES SO TRENDED TOWARD HPC.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ042-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

EAL/HANNON