Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2011

.SHORT TERM... AT 2300 UTC STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE YUKON AND
LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN INTENSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA...PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 90 MPH IN
SOME OF THE BETTER EXPOSED INTERIOR PASSES AND CHANNELS. IN
ADDITION THE DOWNSLOPE WINDSTORM IN THE JUNEAU AREA...LOCALLY
KNOWN AS TAKU WINDS HAS BEEN GUSTING TO 80 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH IN THE YUKON
SHOULD BEGIN TO  WEAKEN.

 TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE COLD WITH THE STRONG INTERIOR
OUTFLOW WITH SEVERAL NORTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE WIND IS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
35 BELOW IN THE SKAGWAY AND 20 TO 25 BELOW IS OTHER NORTHERN
ZONES. WIND CHILLS MODERATE A LITTLE TOMORROW AS THE WIND BEGIN
TO DIMINISH.

 SNOW IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM THE SOUTH AS
INCREASING MOISTURE IS ADVECTS OVER COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FURTHER
NORTHWARD PROGRESS WILL BE SLOW. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS FAR
NORTH AS JUNEAU ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE YUKON MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTHEAST
AND ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE'S SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE WEST MONDAY MORNING. A
MARITIME HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY THEN TILTS TO THE SE
AND AND RETREATS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. A BETTER
ORGANIZED FRONT WITH SE GALES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
UNTIL SUNDAY THEN SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE COLD AND REACHING THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO AS LOW
AS 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND WILL YIELD
WIND CHILLS GENERALLY 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.

THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MILDER AIR MASS AND EXPECT ARES ALONG THE COAST TO CHANGE TO RAIN
WHILE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INLAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL WILL
SIGNIFICANT FOR MISTY FIORD'S.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY WILL LIKELY
BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
ALONG THE COAST. ALSO HAVE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUE WITH MARINE
PUSH AND WILL SEE WARMING TEMPS. USED EC FOR PRES AND NAM AND GFS
FOR MASS FIELDS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR
     AKZ026.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ017-019-020-026.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ027.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ025.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ022.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ028-029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-043.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-035.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-032-034-035-041>043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-036-052.

&&

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