Small Craft Advisory 448, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE SLOWLY WEAKENS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GALE FORCE 990 MB LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAKENING LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE KODIAK LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MOVES TO THE
EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY HAVE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND WEST OF A PAJN-PASI
LINE AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
WILL SEE CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA LIFT AND THIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUN BREAKS OPENING UP IN LEE OF
EAST FACING TERRAIN. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHERN AREAS TO REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT BUT GOES TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITION ON WED. WITH BREAKS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME FOG THROUGH
INNER CHANNELS AS WELL.

PAYA WILL STAY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY SPREADING INTO THE AREA
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEST OF ICY BAY RAIN IS THE RULE WITH QPF
AMOUNTS PUSHING 1 INCH THROUGH WED WITH UPPER FLOW PERPENDICULAR
TO TERRAIN.

WINDS ARE INCREASING TO SOLID SMCR IN PKZ51-52 THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL INCREASE TO GALES FOR 52 BY LATE TONIGHT. GALES SPREAD TO THE
OFFSHORE AND 51 ON WED. CURRENTLY NOT MUCH WIND IN OTHER COASTAL
AREAS BUT THIS WILL INCREASE TO SMCR ON WED. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS IN PAYA AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST BY LATE WED FOR PUBLIC
ZONES.

TEMPS WARMING INTO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND 70 ON WED
FOR SOUTHERN WITH SUNSHINE. LOWER TO MID 60S LIKELY FOR MUCH THE
REMAINDER OF INNER CHANNELS.

MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHORT TERM MODELS IN DEPTH OF KODIAK
LOW WITH NAM THE DEEPEST BUT THE NAM ALSO IS UNUSUALLY NOISY TODAY
SO BLENDED WITH GFS TO SMOOTH SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY/...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ENHANCES LIFT. ONCE
THIS PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
TURN TO SHOWERS. GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND IT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO EASE FROM 12FT WED NIGHT TO
8FT THURSDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
JUST OFFSHORE WHICH TENDS TO CREATE DRYING CONDITIONS ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. IN THIS CASE THAT WOULD MEAN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WOULD HAVE DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP WHILE THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NAMELY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX PASSES BY.

LATER SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH...INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIP LOCATION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-043.

&&

MM/HANNON