Small Craft Advisory 401, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
355 PM AKDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.SHORT TERM /SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY/...
A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 994 MB BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ROUGHLY WEST
OF DIXON ENTRANCE ALONG 140W. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND NEAR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUFFICIENTLY THAT
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER EASTERN OFFSHORE FORECAST AREAS
AND SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT SPREADING SOME PERIODS RAIN INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECT TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PRINCE OF WALES ON MONDAY AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
THAT REGION WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...SO HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY THERE.

SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REGION SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT BY MIDNIGHT.
FRONTAL BAND WINDS ARE EXPECT TO SPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
INTO MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY...REMAINING OFFSHORE...BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OFF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
FILL. THIS SYSTEM WILL WRAP MOISTURE AROUND IT FROM THE GULF OUT
OF THE SW AND BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED...ENHANCING RAINFALL ACROSS
THE MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BUT MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF MOUNTAINS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS
PRECIP AS A RESULT OF FLOW BEING MORE OFFSHORE. THERE WILL BE A
BIT OF A BREAK IN PRECIP AS THE LOW DISSIPATES LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS
WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SEE ONSHORE FLOW AND GREATER CHANCES
OF PRECIP WHEREAS AREA TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE A
REDUCED CHANCE OF RAIN.

WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF EXPECT WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...MAINLY AREAS SOUTH ALONG THE OUTER
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE LOW WILL TURN WINDS TOWARD THE
LOWER PRESSURE THROUGH THE CHANNELS...LEADING TO SOME RARE
NORTHERLIES THROUGH SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF WITH SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW LONGER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MOVES THE RIDGE IN SOONER. USED A BLEND OF THE TWO
WITH THE GOING FORECAST IN THE SHORTER RANGE THEN TRENDED TOWARD
HPC AND THE ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS TO SHOW A MORE GRADUAL
DISSIPATION OF THE LOW.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-035-036-051.

&&

BEZENEK/HANNON