Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Juneau, AK

739 
FZAK52 PAJK 020502 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
801 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-022315-
801 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MON
MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-022315-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
801 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-022315-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
801 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. AREAS OF
FOG. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-022315-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
801 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL SHIFTING TO THE W
LATE. AREAS OF FOG. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN
THE MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND INCREASING TO GALE TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-022315-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
801 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-022315-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
801 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

746 
FZAK52 PAJK 021211
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030100-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA SUNDAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST MOUNTAINS.  

$$

PKZ041-030100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. W
SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-030100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT LATE. RAIN. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-030100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE.
DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING 30 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO
15 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT LATE.
RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
306 PM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PANHANDLE
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
MOST STATIONS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS ARE REPORTING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
THE NORTHER GULF IS REPORTING MORE STEADY RAIN WITH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH SOME MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN NORTHERN
LYNN AND CLARENCE STRAIT. OVER THE GULF WINDS ARE GENERALLY 20 TO
25 KT BUT WITH THE APPROACHING WEATHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF LATE
TONIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO BE OVER
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE IS BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST BY
AN STRONG UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND SLIDE
EAST AS WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SUN
AFTERNOON.

SO FOR TONIGHT...THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
AREAS OF FOG ALONG WITH PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN BE VERY STABLE. THERE IS ALSO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE SE
AK. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER LAND AND MOST MARINE WATERS
WILL SEE THE WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KT. OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT BUT AS THE TROF MOVES OVER THE GULF
WINDS OVER THE NORTH GULF WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE
MAY BE MORE STEADY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS
THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OVER THE AREAS. THIS TROF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOME AND LIFT THE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG. THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO RANGE FROM 20
TO 10 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE
SURFACE TROF WEAKENS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.

.LONG TERM...THE WET CONDITIONS AND WARMER WINTER TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A RETURN TO THE
COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS OF DECEMBER. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MID
LEVEL PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND GALE FORCE FRONTS MOVING INTO THE
GULF AND ADVECTING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. BY THURSDAY A STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF AND SLOWLY RETROGRADE
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BLOCKING
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE YUKON
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING BLOCKING PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT ON THE 12Z NAEFS...GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES AT MID LEVELS. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED THE BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF FURTHER WEST THAN
THE 12Z GFS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND SO THE
12Z ECMWF SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED DAY 4 ONWARD COMBINED WITH THE
HPC SOLUTION. DAY 2 TO 4 THE 12Z ECMWF AGAIN INITIALIZED THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE BEST...AS THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS
CONSIDERABLY OVER PHASED THE MID LEVEL SOLUTION OF GALE FORCE
FRONTS MOVING INTO THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
BLENDED INHERITED GRIDS TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THEN TOWARD THE HPC SOLUTION AFTERWARD.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER COAST AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR YAKUTAT. ATTM...THE 850 MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40
KNOTS WHICH TRANSLATES TO BELOW ADVY GUSTS HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS IN CASE THE 850 MB LLJ IS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. MONDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INTO THE YUKON AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS WITH
NEAR SMCR LEVEL WINDS FROM FREDERICK SOUND NORTHWARD MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL MORE NEAR GALE FORCE FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW BRINGING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE OUTER COAST. ATTM TIMING THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IS DIFFICULT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW. SNOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 1500 FEET AND ABOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AT -3 C OR ABOVE AND THIS WILL KEEP SNOW
LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO RECENT WARM
UP AND MELTING OF THE SURFACE SNOW PACK AND THE FORECAST OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

BY THURSDAY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BEGINS TO
SHIFT AS A BLOCKING MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE FLOW WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
NEAR INTERIOR PASSES TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. NORTHERLY CAA AT 850 MB
DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY NEXT SATURDAY AND THIS
BRINGS 850 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -10 C AND THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO DROP TO THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH THE WET WARM PATTERN BECOME COLDER AND DRY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND PREDICTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE. TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL GALE FORCE FRONTS MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM FREDERICK SOUND
NORTHWARD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

ABJ/PSS