Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Jan 1, 2011, 10:35 AM AKST (19:35 UTC)

Expired

Jan 1, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

665 
FZAK51 PAJK 011937 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-020100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SATURDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-020100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-020100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-020100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-020100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-020100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN THE EVENING. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-020100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-020100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-020100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-020100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-020100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-020100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1035 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 1, 5:50 AM AKST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
550 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN PRODUCING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
THAT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR HYDER WHICH STILL HAS COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND COULD PICK UP AN INCH TODAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH ATMO IS MOIST
AND STABLE WITH MARINE LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN TWO THIRDS WITH CIGS
CONTINUING TO LOWER INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN HERE IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

 ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT.
THIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAIN BY TO PAYA THIS EVENING AND LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL SE SE
WIND INCREASE TO SMCR FOR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. A MODERATE SW
SWELL WILL START TO EASE LATER TONIGHT. FORCING REMAINS WEAK WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO WOULD EXPECT PRECIP RATES TO REMAIN LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO
P-TYPE WILL FAVOR RAIN. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE INTO LOWER 40S
TODAY BUT WITH FROZEN GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SEE TEMPS
FALL BACK TO NEAR FREEZING SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

 LEANED TOWARDS TO EC FOR PRESSURE BUT SAW NO BIG DISCREPANCIES
IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AND USED NAM AND GFS FOR MASS FIELDS.

 .LONG TERM...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEK. AT
ISSUE IS WHERE A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD...WITH THE EC BUILDING
IT FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS IS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTIVE OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN ON PLACEMENT OF THE
RIDGE...BUT IT SUGGESTS THE GFS IS A BIT OVERDONE ON HOW STRONGLY
THE RIDGE BUILDS (CLOSED UPPER HIGH TO 577 DM BY THE END OF ITS
RUN). 06Z RUN OF GFS STILL SHOWED A CLOSED HIGH BUT NOT AS
STRONG...AND FURTHER WEST. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK. ENDED UP
KEEPING THE PRESSURE AND WINDS AS IS (OTHER THAN THE CHANGE IN
WINDS BY ISC BLEND) AND USED THE HPC GRIDS TO EXTEND OUT TO DAY
8. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS THOUGH.

 A WEAK FRONT WILL BE HUNG UP OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING NE THRU THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT
SOMEWHAT AND LOWER LEVELS LOOK MOIST ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN TO FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ENDED UP RAISING POPS TO
LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO MON FOR THIS REASON.
THERE MAY BE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES IN HYDER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE FAR N...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN WITH TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING MOST PLACES DURING THIS PERIOD.

 A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT AND
TUE...AND BRING HEAVIER PRECIP IN WITH IT. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM A
BIT MORE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH THE DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING. ONLY AREAS THAT LOOK LIKE MIGHT SEE ANY SNOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM ARE HYDER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PAHN AND PAGY
ZONES. THIS FRONT MAY HAVE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOP ON IT
WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE GULF SO THAT WOULD SLOW FRONT DOWN AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE PARENT LOW OF THIS FRONT SHOULD TRACK
TOWARD THE SW GULF BUT EVENTUALLY TURN EWD ACROSS THE GULF DURING
MIDWEEK. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE PATTERN APPEARS TO
CHANGE...AND MODELS HAVE PROBLEMS.

 LATE NEXT WEEK...THE LOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN SE AS IT
SLOWLY WEAKENS...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF THIS. THERE SHOULD
BE A DECREASE IN PRECIP THREAT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND AT LEAST
SOME COOLING. STAY TUNED...

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041>043-051-052.

&&

MM/RWT

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2011Every small craft advisory in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.