Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
236 PM AKST FRI JAN 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND
THE ALASKA INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG THE OUTER COAST. CONTINUED DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. OFFSHORE SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS CELLS BUT THEY AREA
ALL MOVING AWAY FROM THE LAND MASSES.

THERE WERE SOME PATCHY FOG LAST NIGHT THAT WAS LOCALLY DENSE
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO UNDER A MILE EXPECT THAT THERE WAS FAIR
DRYING TODAY SO DO NOT THINK THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD FOG
TONIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG THOUGH.

STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE LYNN CANAL AREA RIGHT NOW. GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND NEAR GALE FORCE INCREASING FOR
SOUTHERN LYNN AND GLACIER BAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY AREA IS EXPECTED START THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL START AT THE HIGHER LEVELS
FIRST BUT SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE AND THE STRONG
WINDS MAY NOT BE REACHING THE SURFACE AT THE START OF THE ADVISORY
TIME FRAME.

HAD A PREFERENCE FOR THE NAM SOLUTION THIS MORNING AND THAT IS
WHAT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WERE MADE WITH.

&&

.LONG TERM...DRY...LOCALLY VERY WINDY AND STEADILY GETTING COLDER
THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA
STATIONARY THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY THEN RETROGRADING A BIT. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE
ARE THREE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT DROP SE ALONG EAST SIDE COAST
MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST SETTING UP NOW. SECOND MOVES INTO POSITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A THIRD NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH NE CHANNELS. HAVE SOLID TO MAX GALES
FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING FREEZING SPRAY. CURRENTLY DO NOT SEE A CRITICAL LEVEL SO
TAKU WINDS NOT REAL LIKELY UNTIL WED BUT GAP FLOW WILL BE PRESENT.
AFTER WED NIGHT THE COLDEST PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS YEAR WILL
MOVE INTO PANHANDLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SW OVER PANHANDLE.

CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS IS SHALLOW AND COLD AIR WILL COME IN
THROUGH PASSES. BY MID WEEK ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
SPILL OVER MOUNTAINS AND EVEN PUSH INTO EASTERN GULF. SPENT MOST
TIME ON TEMPS SHOWING GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
COLDEST AREAS NEAR INTERIOR PASSES FALLING TO 15 BELOW ZERO BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR ZERO FOR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
AND AROUND 15 FOR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND OPTED TO MAKE
NO CHANGES TO GRIDS EXCEPT REWORKED TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM AKST SUNDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-032-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043.

&&

BEZENEK/MM