Small Craft Advisory 229, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
446 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED BY A STRONG EARTHQUAKE
OCCURRED IN JAPAN LAST NIGHT AND ALL SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL
SECTIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER TSUNAMI ADVISORY. EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A DISSIPATING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST
MOUNTAINS WITH WEAKENING TROUGH FROM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE
COASTAL WATERS TO HYDER. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST WITH RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST TO COVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA WEAKENS A BIT AND THE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN RELAXED THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. LET THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE INTERIOR
PASSES EXPIRED BY 5 AM. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BRING COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH EARLY
MORNING MERCURY READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 3 DEGREES AT YAKUTAT
TO THE LOWER TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS AND WIND
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW MIX
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY
DRIFTS EAST.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWESTERN CANADA SLIGHTLY WEAKENING BUT CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION
BAND ARRIVING NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE LATE THIS EVENING AND RAIN/SNOW
WILL BEGIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. POPS WILL
INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. NORTHERN
AREAS WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS THE LAND AREAS BUT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND SMALL CRAFT
WINDS/SEAS FOR THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM12.

&&

 .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. 11/00Z OPS MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. TSUNAMI
WATCH THEN ADVISORY FOR SE ALASKA OCCUPIED MOST OF THIS SHIFT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-032>036-042-043. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

AHN/JC