High Wind Watch 8, NWS Juneau, AK

667 
WWAK77 PAJK 302347
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
247 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

AKZ018-019-022-010600-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0008.111201T0000Z-111201T1200Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0013.111201T0000Z-111201T1200Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
247 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY. THE HIGH
WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 


* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* TIMING...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE EVENING 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS COULD BLOW DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.
  WIND DRIVEN RAIN WILL INCREASE AVALANCHE AND MUD SLIDE DANGER

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL
LOSS OF POWER. SECURE BOATS, AIRCRAFT, AND LOOSE OBJECTS THAT CAN
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGE BY THE WIND. PERSONS NEAR STEEP SLOPES
SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 900 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&


$$

AKZ017-010600-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0008.111201T0000Z-111201T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0013.111201T0000Z-111201T0900Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
247 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* TIMING...STRONGEST WIN GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING. WIND
  DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS COULD DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER. 
  WIND DRIVEN RAIN WILL INCREASE AVALANCHE AND MUD SLIDE DANGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL
LOSS OF POWER. SECURE BOATS, AIRCRAFT, AND LOOSE OBJECTS THAT CAN
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGE BY THE WIND. PERSONS NEAR STEEP SLOPES
SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 900 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&


$$

AKZ023-025-010600-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0008.111201T0600Z-111201T1200Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0013.111201T0600Z-111201T1200Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...JUNEAU
247 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM AKST
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH

* TIMING...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS COULD DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER. 
  WIND DRIVEN RAIN WILL INCREASE AVALANCHE AND MUD SLIDE DANGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...BE PREPARED FOR THE
POTENTIAL LOSS OF POWER. SECURE BOATS... AIRCRAFT AND LOOSE
OBJECTS THAT CAN BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGE BY THE WIND. PERSONS
NEAR STEEP SLOPE SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 900 PM AKST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&


$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
556 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...STILL KEEPING OUR FORECASTS FOR RAIN AND THE RISE
IN TEMPERATURES. THE INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS HAS HELPED RAISE PAHN TO 38F AND PAGY TO 41F BY 5 AM
THIS MORNING. ROADS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM THOSE COMMUNITIES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT, PLEASE SEE THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 984 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY IS THE OLD PARENT FEATURE AND HAS A
MATURE OCFNT XTDG NE TO OVR PFYU. THE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCD WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE ALREADY STRONG IN YUKON TRTY WHICH IN TURN  IS
RAISING THE WINDS TOWARD GALE IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.

 A TRIPLE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE VCNTY OF PACV, WITH THE CDFNT
XTDG TO THE SSW, AND A WRMFNT TO THE SSE OF PACV. A WAVE ON THE
CDFNT IS ABT 300 NM S OF PADQ AS OF 14Z. THIS WAVE IS TRACKING
NNE TOWARD PWS. BASED ON THE GOES IR, THIS SECTION OF POLAR FRONT
ZONE HAS A SOURCE REGION 1500 NM SSW OF PADQ, AND THE WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE HANDLED WELL BY ALL THE MODELS.

 THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRAD MOVES SE ALONG PNHDL LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND IS THE REASON WHY THE GALE IS FCST FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE NRN
PNHDL.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIODS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN GROWING A LITTLE WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKAN INTERIOR AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHING THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
GULF ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. USED THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND FOR
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM TIME FRAMES AS THEY WELL AGREE ON MEAN
PATTERN FOR UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES AND MATCH WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

 WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTSIDE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SOLID SOUTHERLY SMALL
CRAFT AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING DEEP LOW OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
ENHANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SOLID SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS AND GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST DOMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALL RAIN...EXCEPT THE NORTHERN MOST AREAS AND NEAR HYDER
WHERE SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY...BUT STILL MIXING WITH
RAIN.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM NOON AKST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022-
     023.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035-053.

&&

JBT/AHN