High Wind Watch 5, NWS Juneau, AK

102 
WWAK77 PAJK 241946
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1146 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

AKZ017-022-242100-
/X.CAN.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111025T1800Z-111026T0600Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
1146 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. 

IT WILL GET WINDY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BUT WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 60 MPH.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.


$$

AKZ023-250815-
/X.EXT.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0000Z-111026T0600Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1146 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
  UP TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
  TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKDT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

RWT

454 
WWAK77 PAJK 242344
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
344 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

AKZ027-028-250745-
/X.EXB.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0300Z-111026T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
344 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
  60 MPH OR HIGHER.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT TUE OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-250745-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0000Z-111026T0600Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
344 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
  60 MPH OR HIGHER ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT TUE OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

RWT

399 
WWAK77 PAJK 250619
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1019 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

AKZ023-251300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0000Z-111026T0600Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
1019 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY 
  REACHING 60 MPH OR HIGHER ALONG SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND. 

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT TUE OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ027-028-251300-
/X.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0300Z-111026T0900Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA
1019 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY 
  REACHING 60 MPH OR HIGHER. 

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HIGH WINDS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT TUE OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

807 
WWAK77 PAJK 251254
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
454 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

AKZ027-252100-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0300Z-111026T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0009.111026T0000Z-111026T0600Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
454 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TUE OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ023-252100-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0000Z-111026T0600Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0009.111026T0000Z-111026T0600Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
454 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM
AKDT THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TUE OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ028-252100-
/X.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0005.111026T0300Z-111026T0900Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0009.111026T0300Z-111026T0900Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
454 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
AKDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND KNOCK OUT POWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 1 PM AKDT TUE OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

NH

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
230 PM AKDT SUN OCT 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROF OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE EWD AND BE E OF
THE AREA MON. SFC TROF OVER THE ERN GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND
MOVE ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLE MON. AN OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE AKPEN WILL MOVE INTO
THE WRN GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN REACH THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE
MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE TONIGHT AND MON
PERIODS...MAINLY FOR THEIR HANDLING OF THE SFC TROF MOVING
ONSHORE AND RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS. RIGHT
NOW THERE ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN GULF AHEAD
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THE COVERAGE
TO REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR N WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT
SHOWER COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE MON AS
SFC RIDGING BUILDS NWD OVER THE AREA...BUT LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW A COMPLETE DRYING OUT. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
OVER THE PAYA AND ADJACENT GULF AREAS MON AFTERNOON AS OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES IN. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE STRATIFORM IN NATURE
HOWEVER.

 AS FOR WINDS...RIGHT NOW WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15-20 KT OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS...WITH A FEW EXPOSED AREAS NEAR SCA. WITH THE
GRADIENT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT INNER
CHANNEL WINDS TO SLOWLY DROP OFF. HOWEVER...THEY WILL START TO
PICK UP AGAIN ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE S AND FRONT MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. AM EXPECTING SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER MAINLY THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS W ICY BAY MON AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE THOUGH SO WILL HAVE SCA FOR
SEAS GOING FOR REMAINING OUTSIDE WATERS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF SCA NW WINDS OVER THE FAR SERN GULF 12-18Z MON AS SFC
TROF MOVES INLAND AND RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT.
 &&

.LONG TERM...FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS DEVELOPING LOW ALL THE
WAY OVER AT KAMCHATKA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL IMPACT THE GULF BY
12Z TUE. 23/12Z OPS MODELS BEGIN TO AGREE ON TRACK TO SOUTHERN END
OF SHELIKOF STRAIT. DEPTH FOR STORM WILL BE IN THE 960S WITH THE
12Z NAM BEING THE SLOWEST WITH LESS STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
STORM FORCE FOR OUTSIDE WATERS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT THEN CONTINUE
WITH HPC GUIDANCE DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. SYSTEM IS VERY MOIST DUE TO
TROPICAL CONNECTION EARLY IN ITS LIFE SO INDICATED HIGH QPF IN
GRIDS TUE AND WED. THICKNESS VALUES LOWER THU AND FRI NIGHTS BUT
KEPT MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE PUBLIC FORECASTS DUE TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING AGAIN ON THU. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THICKNESS
AS WE GET CLOSER TO MIDWEEK. USED 23/12Z ECMWF AS CLOSEST MODEL FOR
THIS SET OF FORECASTS AND CONFIDENCE HIGH DAYS 2 THRU 4.

JC
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ012-041-052.
          SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS PKZ042-043-051.

 &&