Gale Warning 90, NWS Juneau, AK

047 
FZAK67 PAJK 090015
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-091400-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA OUTER COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND THROUGH WED MORNING. A SECOND WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ310-091400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011 

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
301 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AK GULF AND AK PANHANDLE TRACKING
EAST. A 973 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TRACKING NORTH WITH
FRONTAL BAND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF. RADAR SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TRACKING SOUTHEAST.
SHOWERS EXPECTING TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE PANHANDLE HAS SEEN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COASTAL REGIONS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE EASTERN
REGIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS MOVING EAST. HAVE SEEN
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SOME SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WILL SEE WINDS
DIMINISH OVER NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS SURFACE RIDGE
TRACKS EAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVY DUE TO SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. TUE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BEFORE FRONTAL BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE. INCREASING
HIGH THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIP REACHING
YAKUTAT TUE AFTERNOON THEN MOVING DOWN THE COAST. PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THEN TRANSITION MORE TO RAIN TUE
NIGHT.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. GFS WAS A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BOTH THE GFS AND EC
BROUGHT IN PRECIP A BIT QUICKER THAN THE NAM. NAM POP FIELD
MATCHED WELL WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SO USED THE 12Z RUN TO NUDGE
CURRENT GRIDS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES RESULTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT FLATTENS AND TILTS EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. LEADING WARM FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE TUESDAY EVENING
AND THROUGH ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL COINCIDE WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN. A SECOND WARM
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. A
LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NW GULF THURSDAY NIGHT THAT DEEPENS 975 MB SW
OF PAYA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY BUT WETHER THIS
LOW CURVES NORTH INTO NE GULF (EC SOLUTION) OR CONTINUES NE ACROSS
CENTRAL PANHANDLE (GFS SOLUTUION) IS STILL IN QUESTION AND HAS
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND P TYPE.

DID NOT DO AN OVERALL UPDATE TO GRIDS. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT. PLAYED WITH TEMPS AND SNOW
LEVELS TO KEEP PAJN SNOW WED MORNING BUT CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND
18Z. IN LATER PERIODS SPREAD THE HPC POP GRID LIKELY AREA NW
ALONG COAST TO INCLUDED PAYA. ALSO TRENDED A MIXED RA/SN SATURDAY
TO ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FIST SYSTEM ALTHOUGH TIMING OF WARM
FRONT MOVING THROUGH PANHANDLE STILL VARIES BY AS MUCH AS 12
HOURS (GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST) AND OPTED FOR SLOWER
PROGRESSION FOR INNER CHANNELS. GFS, EC, GLOBAL AND UKMET ALL HAVE
500 MB LOW CENTER IN DIFFERENT LOCATION 12Z SUN BUT ALL AGREE IT
IS A COLD UPPER LOW WITH 500 MB TEMPS LESS THAN -36C AND HEIGHTS
LESS THAN 494 DM...SO SOME CONFIDENCE WITH TRENDING COLDER BUT
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

PRB/MM