Gale Warning 89, NWS Juneau, AK

276 
FZAK67 PAJK 031230
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-040100-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND APPROACH THE OUTER COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
MUCH WEAKER LOW NEAR COOK INLET WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-040100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST THU FEB 3 2011 

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
126 PM AKST WED FEB 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX MID 980S MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL CONTINUE NWD WITH MAIN CENTER MOVING TO NEAR MIDDLETON
ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THERE
TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER CENTER REFORMS OVER THE SRN YUKON THIS
EVENING THEN MOVES NNE OUT OF THE AREA THU. YET ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE NE OUT OF THE ERN PAC TO ABOUT 300 NM W OF THE CHARLOTTES BY
LATE THU AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS WAS USED FOR THE TONIGHT AND THU
FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE 12Z ECMWF ALSO
THROWN IN ESPECIALLY THU AFTERNOON.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW
AND SFC RIDGE TO THE E OF THE AREA...TIGHT E-SE PRES GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS MAIN LOW MOVES
AWAY AND WEAKENS. EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND WILL BE OVER THE NRN
INNER CHANNELS WHERE A STG SLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AS LOW DEVELOPS TO THEIR N...THEN WEAKEN BEGINNING LATE
THU MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THEM. ENDED UP EXPANDING
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVYS TO ALL BUT THE PAYA/HYDER
AND FAR  NRN INNER CHANNEL AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST
PART OF THIS EVENING...THEN PAHN HAS WIND ADVY FOR THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH PAGY STARTING UP AROUND 09Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MIDDAY THU. WILL HAVE GALES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NRN INNER
CHANNELS WHERE SCA WAS FCST. MAY NEED TO WATCH NRN LYNN CANAL
THOUGH AS THE PART UP NEAR PAGY COULD REACH GALE FORCE LATE
TONIGHT. ALL THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM S TO N TONIGHT AND
THU.

 OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE A COUPLE AREAS OF MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP
MOVING THRU THE PANHANDLE THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. A SECOND WRAP OF
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING ONE MAIN PRECIP BAND TO THE NRN 2/3RDS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE FAR S REMAINING IN ORIGINAL PRECIP
AREA WITH INITIAL FRONT THRU THIS EVENING THEN PRECIP SHOULD
BECOME MORE SPOTTY OVER THE S LATER TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
MOVES IN. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THU
AND THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIP TO BECOME SHOWERY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
AREA OF PRECIP WILL SPREAD NE INTO THE FAR S THU AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TURN THE FLOW FROM
SW TO SE  OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE MAIN PANHANDLE AREA WHICH
SHOULD DECREASE  THE SHOWERS SOMEWHAT THERE. TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY
STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT THEN START FALLING
SLOWLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THU AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. MAY
EVEN SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODEL AGREEMENT HAS NOT BEEN NARROWED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL RUNS. A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWING A
RELATIVELY BETTER CONSISTENCY IN SYNOPTIC SCALE. HOWEVER...SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES ARE STILL STRUGGLING FROM RUN TO RUN. THE LONG TERM
FORECAST STRATEGY WILL CONTINUE LEANING ON PERSISTENT TECHNIQUES
WITH 50/50 BLENDING OF THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z RUN ECMWF ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE
00Z RUN AND THUS FOR THE REST OF MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ARE BLENDED
50/50 WITH THE HPC AND ECMWF. RELATIVELY HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...BUT THE LEVEL OF
PREDICTABILITY HAS BEEN LIFTED UP A BIT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
FORECAST STRATEGY.

 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ALASKA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. A SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BECOME A BROAD LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN...WITH
ITS WEAK LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE...ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT EAST AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

 UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE LOW IN THE
PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND APPROACH DIXON
ENTRANCE BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AS IT LAND FALLING OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PANHANDLE AND DISSIPATE OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY.
THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE LOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...IMPROVING WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

 BETWEEN THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
WESTERN CANADA...EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME TIGHT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS ON SATURDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH MOSTLY SMALL CRAFT LEVEL FORCE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASING WINDS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS. ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIODS.

 YET ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED AND POSSES
POTENTIAL HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOCAL REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LITTLE COLDER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND OVER-RUNNING SCENARIO WILL
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY HAINES AREA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ024-026>028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ020>023-025.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ019.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013.

&&

RWT/AHN