Gale Warning 73, NWS Juneau, AK

882 
FZAK52 PAJK 240803
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1100 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-241400-
1100 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA TONIGHT.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-241400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1100 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. W
SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-241400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1100 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. W
SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-241400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1100 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-241400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1100 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-241400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1100 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011 

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
216 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STORM FORCE
FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SE AK THIS EVENING THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MON. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A UPPER
LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC.

RAIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD INTO THE INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT LIFTS
OVER THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND FRONT LIFTS INTO CANADA. P-TYPE
WILL BE MOSTLY OF THE LIQUID FORM BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW
ALONG THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1
TO 3 INCHES. AS THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF BUT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS
NORTH OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FRONT IS PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALES ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND VEER AROUND TO THE SW BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN TO SEE SMALL
CRAFT WINDS THROUGH MON FROM THE SE BUT THE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT BUT INCREASE AGAIN
MON AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROF LIFTS OVER THE NE GULF AND
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AS THE NEXT LOW LIFTS INTO THE GULF. OVER THE
INNER CHANNELS THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER LAND AREAS AS THE
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA BUT WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS IT IS WINDY ATTM BUT THERE
WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ONCE THE
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE AREA AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN THE SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING. WITH THAT SAID WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVY FOR ZONE 18 FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. THE
MARINE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SMALL CRAFT OVER MOST AREAS WITH GALES OVER THE
NORTHER LYNN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THROUGH MON THE
MARINE WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT.

THERE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT 24HRS
AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THE PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FAIRLY SIMILAR
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE GULF AND MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA BRINGING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION. UNTIL THAT BREAK IN THE PRECIP WILL SEE
SEVERAL GALE FORCE LOWS MOVE INTO THE GULF WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BRINGING
LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. AS EACH OF THESE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL SEE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM GIVING STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CROSS SOUND...LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY AND
TIMING THE STRONGEST WIND EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS REMAINS THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AFTER HAND OFF WITH
SHORT TERM BLENDED INHERITED GRIDS TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION AS
THE GFS WAS THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL WITH THE MOVEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE GALE FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF WERE
SLOWER AND WEAKER. BY TUESDAY NIGHT PREFERRED THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION AS THE 12Z GFS SURFACE SOLUTION DID MATCH THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WITH SEVERAL SMALL SURFACE LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A STRONGER GALE FORCE LOW MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
BRINGING WIND ADVY GUSTS TO AT LEAST THE OUTER COAST. WITH THE
VERY POOR MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE 00Z/12Z ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS BEING SO FAR APART ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY ONWARD BLENDED
TOWARD THE HPC SOLUTION GIVEN THAT IT WAS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THE FIRST OF TWO GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BRINGING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
OUTER COAST AND RAINFALL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR YAKUTAT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN
NEAR 1000 TO 1500 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR -4 C. WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE
NORTHERN HIGHWAYS...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINING ALONG THE
OUTER COAST PREVENTING FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL SEE SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS AND EXPECT A STRONG
SOUTHWEST PUSH IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SMCR TO GALE
FORCE WINDS IN CROSS SOUND NORTHWARD INTO LYNN CANAL. COULD ALSO
SEE WIND ADVY GUSTS NEAR SKAGWAY BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ATTM THE GRADIENT
HAS TOO MUCH OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO GIVE SKAGWAY WIND ADVY
GUSTS.

THE SECOND AND STRONGER GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A STRONGER 850 MB LLJ OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SO
EXPECT AT LEAST WIND ADVY GUSTS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THERE WILL ALSO BE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY 850 TO 500 MB FLOW FROM JUNEAU SOUTHWARD AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH UPWARDS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 18 HOURS
NEAR KETCHIKAN. COULD ALSO SEE LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROADWAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL HAVE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND SO THIS SITUATION BARES WATCHING. IN AREAS
OF RECENT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR AVALANCHES AS THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME DETERMINING THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
THE EXACT PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE IF ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CAN
REMAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS FROM THE OUTER COAST
INLAND. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME VERY LARGE EVEN IN THE ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND SO ATTM EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM JUNEAU SOUTHWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BUT ESPECIALLY SO BEYOND THURSDAY AS THE MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS IS VERY
POOR. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST MONDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-041-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031>036-042.

&&

ABJ/PSS