Gale Warning 538, NWS Juneau, AK

598 
FZAK52 PAJK 252018 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1118 AM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-260100-
1118 AM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY
EVENING. A STORM FORCE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF MONDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-260100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1118 AM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-260100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1118 AM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. W
SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-260100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1118 AM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN LATE. 
.MON...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-260100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1118 AM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW
LATE. 
.MON...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-260100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1118 AM AKST SUN DEC 25 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING
TO 11 FT LATE. SW SWELL. SNOW LATE.
.MON...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 PM AKST SAT DEC 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH IS CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS...OCCASIONALLY
MIXED WITH SNOW...ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UNDER THE
DRY SLOT THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. HAVE LEFT THE MENTION
OF THIS OUT AS IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING IT WILL DRAW WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES UP FROM THE SOUTH...KEEPING PRECIP MOSTLY RAIN WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE HYDER AREA WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES AND WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO FALL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE MADE THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW AT THE SAME
TIME. THEREFORE EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO MAINLY
SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

 MODELS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE
COOLING TREND THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. USED MAINLY A BLEND OF THE
SREF, NAM12 AND ECMWF FOR THIS PACKAGE UPDATE WITH THE SREF
INITIALIZING PRESSURE THE BEST. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...FOR MONDAY A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE UP FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE EASTERN AK GULF. LOW CENTER WILL DROP TO
AROUND 961 MB THEN FILL AS THE LOW CONTINUED TO TACK NORTH TOWARD
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA TUE NIGHT WAS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF WED. TRACK OF THIS
LOW IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT EXPECTING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH POOR
MODEL AGREEMENT BUT WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THE PATTERN OF
SERIES OF LOWS MOVING INTO THE AK GULF.

 MAIN ISSUE FOR MONDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAX
GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS. WIND GUST ALONG THE
COASTAL AREA WILL NEAR WARNING CRITERIA THAT AFTERNOON. HELD OFF
ISSUING STATEMENT JUST YET AS DID NOT WANT 4TH PERIOD TO OVER
SHADOW WEATHER FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WILL SEE COLD AIR
MOVE IN FROM CANADA WITH OFFSHORE FLOW SUN NIGHT INTO MON. AS
FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING DID NOT SNOW AMOUNTS MORE
THAN A FEW INCHES MONDAY BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS.

 MODELS BEGAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
OVERALL LIKED THE EC AND GFS INITIALIZATION. ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
A BIT QUICKER MOVING THE LOW NORTH INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH
THE GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF A BIT
LONGER. FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z EC FELL MORE IN
LINE AROUND 18Z WED BUT QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE
LOW TO THE NORTH WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE MAIN ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH MODEL SPREAD LASTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE GFS. WHILE THE EC IS ALSO SHOWING FAIR RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY IT IS MAINLY SHIFTING THE POSITION OF FEATURES
RATHER THAN REMOVING THEM ENTIRELY. UPDATED GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF
THE 12Z EC, WHICH DID MOVE THE MON GULF LOW A BIT FURTHER NORTH
BUT DID NOT MAKE A FULL CHANGE TO THE MODEL. FROM DAY 3 ONWARD
BEGAN TO LIMIT GRID CHANGES WITH THE 12Z EC THEN TRANSITIONED TO
A BLEND OF NEW HPC GUID, WHICH WAS A SUPER BLEND OF MODELS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MONDAY STORM
THEN DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY WED DUE TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-033>036-041>043-
     051>053.

&&

HANNON/PRB