Gale Warning 501, NWS Juneau, AK

502 
FZAK52 PAJK 141840 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
939 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-151245-
939 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY.   

$$

PKZ041-151245-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
939 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S GALE INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-151245-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
939 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...S GALE INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-151245-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
939 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-151245-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
939 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-151245-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
939 AM AKST WED DEC 14 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE GALE INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 



$$

872 
FZAK52 PAJK 150011
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-151400-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF AND COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-151400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING.
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-151400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-151400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-151400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-151400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 14 2011 

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

562 
FZAK52 PAJK 151241
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A 995 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. W
SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
252 PM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...ONE BAND OF SEMI ORGANIZED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE
ARE TRACKING NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.

 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REST OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE
AREA WILL BE GIVING WAY TO AN INCOMING FRONTAL BAND OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVE
TO THE EASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW...
OR SNOW GIVING WAY TO RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
... AND LIQUID OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD. JUST CHANCE LEVEL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS.  SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD
BE LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

 SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NORTHEAST  SECTIONS ON
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE THE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WILL BE DUE TO THE
HIGHER SEES PERSISTING THERE.  DO EXPECT A SMALL INCREASE TO
25 KT FOR THE CROSS SOUND AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY SHOW A LONGWAVE TROF WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN OVER WRN AK AND BERING SEA AND ADJACENT NPAC
WATERS...WHILE LONGWAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FAR ERN PAC AND
ADJACENT FAR WRN CANADA/WRN LOWER 48. THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON
TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE AREA...MAKING FOR A
TRICKY SYSTEM TIMING FORECAST BUT OVERALL PATTERN IS FAVORING
MILD AND WET WEATHER ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF SOME OF THE SHORTWAVES AS
WELL...SO CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH WIND WILL OCCUR IS RATHER LOW
ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD. DUE TO THE SIMILAR WAY THEY
HANDLE FEATURES THRU FRI...USED A 12Z GFS/ECMWF BLEND THRU 06Z
SAT...THEN WENT WITH LATEST HPC FROM 12Z SAT ON OUT.

 FOR WED NIGHT...WEAKENING FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE OUTER
COAST...AND PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ESPECIALLY ON THE
ERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD.

 STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE IN THU THRU FRI. SHOULD SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVE BACK IN ALONG WITH SOME WARMER AIR. WILL
ALSO SEE MORE WIND WITH THIS FRONT WITH GALES LIKELY OVER THE ERN
GULF AND CLARENCE STRAIT AREAS AHEAD OF IT. ONE ISSUE WITH THIS
FRONT IS HOW MUCH LOW PRESSURE WAVE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE NE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON THIS EXCEPT THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE. THEY TAKE ONE WAVE INTO THE SE GULF
THU NIGHT THEN A SECOND WAVE INTO THE NE GULF FRI. THAT AGREEMENT
WAS DECIDING FACTOR IN CHOOSING THAT MODEL BLEND DURING THIS
TIME. ALREADY 18Z GFS IS GOING SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT AGAIN ON
THIS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE.

 FOR WEEKEND ONWARD...ABOUT ONLY THING MODELS AGREE ON IS ANOTHER
FAIRLY STRONG BUT WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF
SOMETIME DURING THE SUN/MON PERIOD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT