Gale Warning 487, NWS Juneau, AK

867 
FZAK52 PAJK 060738 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1038 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070145-
1038 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OUT OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF TUE AND SLIDE E OVER THE
PANHANDLE. 

$$

PKZ041-070145-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1038 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-070145-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1038 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
14 FT. W SWELL.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
W SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-070145-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1038 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-070145-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1038 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-070145-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1038 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
230 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

BLACK ICE TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS. SEE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT ON OUR HOME PAGE UNDER FORECASTS...TEXT...SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EIGHTH ITEM DOWN.

.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT
FROM THE ICY STRAIT AREA PUSHING SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ALONG WITH THE RAIN AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE ALONG WITH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF ATTM. THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THOUGH TONIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS SOME ALTO-CU DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TUE TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MIXED WITH
OR BE ALL SNOW. THERE IS RAIN FALLING ATTM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE BUT AS THE FRONT DRIFT SOUTH THE RAIN WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS AND THEN OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON
THE DRY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND WEAK ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION.

THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE
EVENING THAT THE WINDS WILL CALM COMPLETELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE NEAR CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT AS THE WESTERLY
WINDS ARE GALE FORCE WITH VERY HIGH GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE MARINE WATERS WILL SEE
THE SMALL CRAFT WINDS DIMINISH TO BE LESS THAN 20 KT THIS EVENING
THEN BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OVER THE GULF THE WEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF DRIFTS EAST AND
INTO CANADA.

TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS SE AK TONIGHT AS WITH LARGE BREAKS
DEVELOPING OVER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH CAA FROM THE WNW
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWERS 20S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO
MID 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH ALL OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
BLACK ICE AND MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ABJ

&&

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR ALASKA AND UPSTREAM REMAINS A CASE OF
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROFS AND RIDGES BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE. WINTRY COLD
AIR ALOFT BELOW -40C AT 500 MB REMAINS OVER SIBERIA AND IN THE
ANCHOR LOW OVER GREENLAND. THE RESULT IS THAT WAVES ORIGINATING IN
THE WEST ARE SUPPORTED BY THE COLD AIR BUT CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
HEAT EACH TIME ONE APPROACHES SE ALASKA.

A RIDGE WILL OVER 140W WED AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AND
CLEARING. RADIATIVE COOLING THROUGH CLEAR SKIES PLUS COLDER AIR
MOVING FROM INTERIOR PASSES IS GOING TO GIVE SE A FEELING OF WINTER
AGAIN WITH SOME MORNING MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH.

STARTING WED NIGHT ALL OPS MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA STARTING AS SNOW. USED 12/05
AK-GFS-40 TO FORECAST THE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS ON THU WITH SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY TO SOUTH CHANGING TO RAIN. STAY TUNED BECAUSE THE
SNOW AMOUNT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO CALL YET BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY
TURN TO RAIN. NEXT BREAK LOOKS TO BE SAT NIGHT AND THEN MORE WARM
AND WET IN SW FLOW ALOFT. USED HPC PROGS SAT THRU MON. CONFIDENCE
MODERATE DUE TO TIMING OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS. SNOW FORECAST
MODERATE BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE AMOUNTS AND RAIN CHANGE-OVER. JC

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND TIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ022-036-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ011>013-021-031>035-041>043.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
126 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

AKZ017>021-025-026-061800-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
126 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

...POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...

HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TODAY LEADING TO WET
PAVEMENT AND PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS. DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER THIS
EVENING WILL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND FALLING BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO NEAR FREEZING OVER THE CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS. STANDING WATER FROM TODAYS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
SNOW-MELT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE AS TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING. TRAVEL WITH CAUTION
AS ROADS WILL BE SLIPPERY...REDUCE SPEEDS AND KEEP A SAFE DISTANCE
FROM OTHER CARS.