Gale Warning 464, NWS Juneau, AK

306 
FZAK67 PAJK 161245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-170100-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 995 MB LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING AND ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC NEAR HAIDA GWAII BY
SATURDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-170100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
318 PM AKST THU DEC 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG CENTRAL AND NRN OUTER COAST
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER PART OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THRU MORE QUICKLY AND LEAVE BEHIND SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
FRONTAL LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 49N/151W WILL MOVE NWD TO THE N-CENTRAL GULF BY 18Z
FRI...THEN ONSHORE FRI AFTERNOON. A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
DEVELOP WITH THE LOW AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. USED THE
00Z ECMWF AS IT HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW MOVING NWD INTO
THE GULF TONIGHT.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE TEMPS AND PTYPE. RIGHT NOW THE MORE
ERN INNER CHANNELS REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...EVEN WITH E-SE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
15 KT IN MANY PLACES. THINK TEMPS OVER THE ERN AREA WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THRU THIS EVENING...THEN LEVEL OFF OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY RISE TO THE MID 30S MOST ERN AREAS...ALTHOUGH
PAJN AREA AND OTHER LOCATIONS RIGHT UP AGAINST THE COAST MTNS
WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND 32-34 DEGREES. HYDER WILL REMAIN ON THE
COLD SIDE AS  THEY WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND TO HELP
MIX OUT THE COLD AIR THERE NOW...WITH ONLY THE PRECIP SLOWLY
MODERATING THE AIRMASS.

 THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP PTYPE MORE SNOW LONGER OVER THE ERN INNER
CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIP TO DEVELOP...THE PRECIP WILL BE TAPERING OFF AS
THE MID-LEVEL PART OF THE FRONT MOVES PAST THE AREA. SO ONCE
PRECIP DOES START TO MIX OVER THE ERN AREAS IT WILL TEND TO TAPER
OFF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THINK ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST MTNS THIS EVENING.

 OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF MOST PLACES AS MID-LEVEL
PART OF THE FRONT MOVES PAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LYNN CANAL WILL LIKELY PICK UP AS SLY GRADIENT
INCREASES THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE GALES OVER THE NRN END AND SCA
OVER THE S THRU MOST OF TONIGHT. WILL KEEP STRONG WIND HEADLINE
GOING FOR THE PAGY AREA  THRU 09Z TONIGHT AS WELL. THOSE WINDS
SHOULD DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING AS GRADIENT
REORIENTS A BIT AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVING NWD INTO THE GULF AND ITS
OWN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NWD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP
THE MOST OVER THE CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE SFC LOW
TRACK FRI...WITH GALES LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND SCA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF. WILL LIKELY
SEE SCA WINDS DEVELOP OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND IN CLARENCE STRAIT
AGAIN FRI MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN POSITION OVER
BERING SEA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
RIDGE AXIS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN A WAVY
SW WIND FLOW ALOFT SE AK. WEATHERWISE WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL
WEATHER FRONTS AFFECTING SE AK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND FROM SW TO NE OVER THE WEEKEND. FORECASTS WERE MODIFIED
ONLY SLIGHTLY IN COORDINATION WITH ANCHORE OFFICE USING SAME PLAN
AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS... LEANED ON ECMWF MODEL THROUGH MON THEN
BLENDED IN BROADBRUSH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM NATIONAL CENTER
TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL PATTERN IS WELL
ESTABLISHED... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE SINCE IT IS ALL
RELATED TO TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW PERIODS ASSOCIATED WITH INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT.

WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH SE AK FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL BE EAST OF AREA ON SAT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK BUBBLE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW PRECIP
TO DIMISHISH. STRONGER GALE FORCE SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
LATER SUN INTO MON MORNING. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE FAIR AMOUNTS OF
PCPN AND WILL HAVE STIFF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND TURBULENCE. I EXPECT
A SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AFTER THIS LOW/FRONT PASSES SE AK
MON. THE JETSTREAM WILL SAGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST AND ALLOW COOLER AIR TO ADVANCE OVER AT LEAST NRN
SE AK AND POSSIBLY FARTHER. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON
EXACT PRESSURE PATTERN BEHIND THIS LOW. BUT IF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS STRONGLY ENOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AND COOL TEMPS MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THIS IS THE TIME RANGE WHEN MODELS OFFER
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS. AS NATIONAL CENTER GUIDANCE RECOMMENDED...
MIDDLE OF ROAD APPROACH SAFEST AT THIS TIME. THAT WOULD BE A DAY
OR TWO OF DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TEMPS FOR MID DEC... 20S AND 30S
NORTH AND MOSTLY 30S SOUTH.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

RWT/TA