Gale Warning 441, NWS Juneau, AK

687 
FZAK52 PAJK 240705 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1005 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-241400-
1005 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. A SECOND LOW
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII TO THE CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ041-241400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1005 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
BUILDING TO 23 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-241400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1005 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING
TO 23 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-241400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1005 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-241400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1005 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SW SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-241400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1005 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011 

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

580 
FZAK52 PAJK 241244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-250100-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NE ACROSS SOUTHERN HAIDA GWAII AND INTO CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA TONIGHT. OUTLOOK. A STORM FORCE LOW WILL ENTER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-250100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-250100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W AND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL IN
THE EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-250100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-250100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 

.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 11
FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-250100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 24 2011 

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKST WED NOV 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...COMPLEX LOW OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD
TO THE FAR ERN GULF BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN INLAND AND WEAKEN OVER
THE N-CENTRAL PANHANDLE THU. A SMALL BUT STRONG POLAR LOW OVER
THE S-CNTRL GULF WILL MOVE NE TO NEAR CAPE EDGECUMBE BY LATE
EVENING...THEN INLAND TO NEAR HOONAH BY DAYBREAK THU. THIS LOW
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BY
LATE THU MORNING OVER THE NRN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK
NE ACROSS SRN HAIDA GWAII THEN TO THE CENTRAL BC COAST THU. USED
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT HAD BEST FIT TO OBS AND SATELLITE DATA
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POLAR LOW.

 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SNOWFALL AND WINDS. THE 2 MAIN
AREAS OF CONCERN FOR SNOWFALL ARE THE N-CENTRAL AREA...AND THE
FAR SERN CORNER. THE NRN AREA WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE LATE
THIS EVENING AS THE POLAR LOW MOVES ONSHORE. THERE WILL BE A WELL
DEFINED COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION ZONE THAT REMAINS OVER THE
PAGS/PAOH/PAEL AREAS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST NW OF THE POLAR
LOW... WHILE AREAS JUST E OF THERE ON SE SIDE OF THE POLAR LOW
WILL GET MORE SHOWERY PRECIP. WILL GO WITH WS WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE N-CENTRAL AREA THRU 18Z THU 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL
EXTEND CURRENT WW ADVY FOR ZONE 19 S OF PAHN AREA...WITH 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BY 18Z THU S OF PAHN.

 OVER THE SRN AREA...INVERTED TROF WILL DEVELOP TO THE NNE OF THE
LOW MOVING PAST THEM TO THE S...AND PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER THE
SRN AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP NWRN EDGE TO THE
STEADIER PRECIP...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP IN SERN ZONE
29. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE ALONG DIXON ENTRANCE AREA AS SOME
WARMER MARINE AIR MOVES IN ON SE WINDS. WILL ISSUE WS WARNING FOR
ZONE 29 FOR MAINLY THE NE CORNER OF THAT AREA...WITH 18 TO
24 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN HYDER THRU THU AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO
ISSUE WW ADVY  FOR PAKT ZONE FOR 3 TO 8 INCHES MAINLY AROUND THE
PAKT AREA THRU THU AFTERNOON.

 AS FOR WINDS...MOST IMPORTANT AREA WIND WISE WILL BE AROUND THE
POLAR LOW MOVING IN TONIGHT. ON ITS S AND E SIDE EXPECT 40-45 KT
SLY WINDS ALONG THE FAR E-CNTRL GULF AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREA
LATE TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF GALES IN THE N-CENTRAL
CHANNELS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING AS POLAR LOW MOVES NE
TO HEAR HOONAH AROUND DAYBREAK THU. MAY SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF NLY
GALES IN LYNN CANAL EARLY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE POLAR
LOW...WITH SCA WINDS EXPECTED IN THE ICY STRAIT/CROSS
SOUND/GLACIER BAY AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND THU MORNING.

 OTHERWISE...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT IN
ZONES 26 AND 27 AS THEY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD IS VERY ACTIVE WITH ONE SHORT
WAVE OR FRONT AFTER ANOTHER AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALL OF THESE FOLLOWING THE SW FLOW ALOFT AROUND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH. SYSTEM ONE SHOWS UP EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES
LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR MORE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS, WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA, SHOWING UP IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

 SYSTEM NUMBER TWO FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WITH A
980 MB LOW PLOWING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY SAT BRINGING
PRECIP TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING GALES INTO CLARENCE STRAIT AS WELL AS
TURN THE SNOW INTO RAIN FROM SUMNER STRAIT SOUTHWARD. BEHIND IT,
THE COLD AIR RETURNS POSSIBLY CHANGING THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW JUST
BEFORE IT ENDS.

 BEHIND SYSTEM TWO IS A DAY LONG BREAK WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK
TROUGH TO BREAK IT EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE COLD AIR AND THE SW FLOW.

 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN SYSTEM NUMBER THREE MAKES ITS PRESENTS
KNOW AS A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER 975 MB LOW IN THE
NW GULF MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WARMER
AIR IN BEHIND IT POSSIBILITY MIXING THE SNOW WITH RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE CURRENT EC IS MUCH FASTER IN BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO THE AREA THAN THE GFS CURRENTLY IS.

 THEN BEHIND THAT ONE IS ONE OR TWO MORE SYSTEMS, DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL THAT YOU LOOK AT. DECIDED TO STICK WITH NAM WITH SOME
EC OR UK THROUGH THE MID RANGE PERIOD DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER IN SOME CASES. WENT TOWARD THE HPC DATA FOR EXTENDED
RANGE UPDATES DUE TO THE INCREASING DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ020>022-026.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ017-018-023>025-027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ020>025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ028.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ029.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-031>033-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-034>036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

RWT/EAL