Gale Warning 431, NWS Juneau, AK

034 
FZAK52 PAJK 201943 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1043 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210100-
1043 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL YUKON WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE N ALONG THE OUTER COAST
THROUGH MON. 

$$

PKZ041-210100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1043 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN...THEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-210100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1043 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.MON...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN...THEN SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-210100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1043 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN...THEN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-210100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1043 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-210100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1043 AM AKST SUN NOV 20 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
332 PM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SE GULF
WILL DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN TO A TROF OVER DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE
TONIGHT. A LOW WILL MOVE N TO NEAR 52N/138W BY LATE SUN
AFTERNOON. THE TROF OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DRIFT NWD INTO SRN
SE AK AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE SE
GULF BY LATE SUN. USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z GEM AND ECMWF DUE TO
WAY THEY HANDLED THE LOW NOW IN THE SE GULF AND THE WAY THEY
HANDLE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUN.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW SNOW
IS OVER THE SRN AREA...AND EXPECT IT TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL KEEP WINTER WX ADVY GOING FOR
ZONES 27 AND 28 THRU 06Z. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE ADVY AREAS. THERE MAY BE ON AND OFF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE FAR SRN AREA LINGERING INTO SUN MORNING AS WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THERE. THIS WILL INCREASE LATER SUN
AS TROF LIFTS NWD AND FRONT/LOW MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. SNOW
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE SRN AREA SUN AFTERNOON...AND MAY BEGIN
TO SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN OVER THE FAR SRN AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS
WARMER SE FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME SNOW SHOULD GET TO THE S-CENTRAL
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WINDS IN
MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT. WILL HAVE GALES FOR THE NRN
CHANNELS...AND SCA FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING AREA TONIGHT.
LOCALLY AROUND JUNEAU...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR MTN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION AND STRENGTH OF THE CROSS MTN
FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS TONIGHT INTO SUN. OUTFLOW WILL BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH 40+ KT WINDS LIKELY OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES INTO
THE NE GULF AREA. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL
INCREASE SUN AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COLD THROUGH SUN EXCEPT THE FAR SRN
AREA WILL START WARMING LATE SUN AS FLOW TURNS SE THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...AGREEMENT ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEMS IS
INCREASING ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
SOLUTIONS.  CURRENT THINKING IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WAS
BEING ISSUED BEFORE. BELIEVE THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD OFF SHORE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WEAKENING BY EARLY
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES PAST BARANOF/CHICHAGOF
ISLANDS...DECREASING THE POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE. WIND ABOUT THE LOW FOR EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING LOOK TO BE GALE FORCE FOR THE OUTER WATERS... AND
THE NORTHERLY/EASTERLY GRADIENTS FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PANHANDLE LOOK TO REMAIN JUST AS SOLID TOO SO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
THOSE WATERS.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE

THE AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE RIGHT
ABOUT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE LAND AREAS (3
INCHES...27/28... AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR 20...21...24...25..26. FOR
A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD) I HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SORT OF WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

FROM TUESDAY ONWARD... THERE IS A POLAR VORTEX DROPPING FROM THE
ARCTIC SEA REGION INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SO EXPECT A RESIDUAL
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ALL OF THE NEW COLD AIR
WILL KEEP CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY SATURDAY ESSENTIALLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ABOUT AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH HAVE A SHADE
OF CONCERN ABOUT THE SUN NIGHT STORM TRACK AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
AKZ027-
     028.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ031-051.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

RWT/BEZENEK