Gale Warning 427, NWS Juneau, AK

286 
FZAK51 PAJK 180424 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-182230-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE YUKON PUSHING ARCTIC
AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH FRI.  

$$

PKZ011-182230-
GLACIER BAY-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-182230-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-182230-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-182230-
ICY STRAIT-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-182230-
CROSS SOUND-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-182230-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-182230-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-182230-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT LATE. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-182230-
FREDERICK SOUND-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-182230-
SUMNER STRAIT-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-182230-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
723 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT
7 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

382 
FZAK51 PAJK 181239
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-190100-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE YUKON PUSHING ARCTIC
AIR FROM THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SAT.   

$$

PKZ011-190100-
GLACIER BAY-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-190100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO
60 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-190100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 KT
IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-190100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY LATE. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-190100-
CROSS SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-190100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-190100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-190100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-190100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-190100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-190100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 18 2011 

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
222 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...AT 1800 UTC A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF CAPE ST JAMES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED
TO BUILD OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS WERE SPIRALING
AROUND THE LOW AND REACHING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THIS AREA REPORTED BRIEF FLURRIES DURING
THIS TIME...BUT THESE SHOULD END BY EARLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC TREND BUT THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THEIR HANDLING OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE INVERTED
OFFSHORE TROUGH.

 THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA BETWEEN THE
HIGH CENTER TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL RELAX A
BIT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...BUT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE SO ANY SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN WINDS
WILL BE SLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. MOUNTAIN WAVE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

 AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SKIES
CLEAR TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT
REACHING SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME NORTHERN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...ARCTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST N AND E OF THE AREA THRU
SUN NIGHT...THEN MOVE SLOWLY OFF TO THE E EARLY NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC
FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF WITH ONE OR MORE MINOR LOWS
MOVING SE ALONG IT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT WILL
RETREAT NWD STARTING SUN AS A COMPLEX LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE
INTO THE SRN AND ERN GULF. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST LOW WILL MOVE NWD
TO THE FAR E-CNTRL GULF MON THEN DISSIPATE AS IT RUNS FURTHER N INTO
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MON NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ERN
GULF LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND THIS LOW WILL HELP WIPE OUT THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NRN AREA BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON.
STILL SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES ON THE COMPLEX SYSTEM...SO LATEST
HPC WAS USED FOR THE 12Z MON PERIOD ON OUT. BEFORE THEN...USED
GFS/NAM BLEND FROM 00Z SAT TO 12Z SUN...THEN GFS FOR 12Z SUN TO
06Z MON.

LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA LATE FRI INTO
EARLY SUN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL PRECIP ALONG THE COAST
FROM THE LOWS RUNNING SE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING THIS TIME.
ALSO WILL HAVE STRONG OUTFLOWS GOING ON DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED SOME WIND HEADLINES.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM THE S SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN AREA AHEAD OF THE FIRST
LOW AND FRONT BY SUN EVENING...THEN SPREAD N TO THE CENTRAL AREA MON.
MAY HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPE GOING ON ALONG THE COAST MTNS N OF
FREDERICK SOUND SO POPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER THERE THAN FURTHER
W MON. MAY SEE A MINOR BREAK IN PRECIP ESPECIALLY N MON NIGHT AFTER
FIRST LOW TROFS OUT OVER THE NE GULF AND SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE
SE GULF. HOWEVER LOOKS LIKE SOME OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS GOING MON NIGHT
OVER THE N. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE AND THE
N-CENTRAL AREA SHOULD WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON.

LATER IN THE WEEK SOME COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FROM THE W
BUT INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIR IS IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW FAST NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THE LEAST WILL HAVE AN ANCHOR LOW
OVER THE NRN GULF WITH COLD AIR FLOWING OUT TO THE W AND S OF THE
LOW AND INTO SE AK UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM PINCHES OFF THIS COLD FLOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-019.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-051-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-032>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052.

&&

CFD/RWT