Gale Warning 425, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Nov 17, 2011, 12:36 PM AKST (21:36 UTC)

Expired

Nov 17, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

630 
FZAK51 PAJK 172136 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-180100-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY SOUTH THROUGH THU. A STRONG OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE
NORTH WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH FRI.  

$$

PKZ011-180100-
GLACIER BAY-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-180100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY LATE.
.FRI...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-180100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-180100-
ICY STRAIT-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-180100-
CROSS SOUND-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-180100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT
OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR INTERIOR PASSES. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR INTERIOR PASSES.
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-180100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-180100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT LATE.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-180100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-180100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-180100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1236 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 17, 5:57 AM AKST, 6 hours 39 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS CAUSING
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE. THIS IS CLEARLY
DEPICTED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TO THE NORTH THE OFFSHORE FLOW
HAS ALREADY DRIED THINGS OUT WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

 THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE OF THE DAY IS WINDS. WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A TIGHT NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS SET UP WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH. THIS
IS CAUSING STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION IS FOR CLARENCE STRAIT WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE
TO NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST NW WINDS THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...NAMELY IN THE
YAKUTAT AND HAINES AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTING IN FROM CANADA WILL
CAUSE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WITH LITTLE WARMING
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING THEN SIGNIFICANT COOLING THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

 THE ECMWF AND NAM12 MODELS INITIALIZED THE PRESSURE FIELD VERY
WELL SO UPDATED MOST FIELDS WITH THAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE AS MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS FEATURE WELL
OVER THE PAST WEEK.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...EXTENDED PERIOD DEALS WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND THE SUBSEQUENT STORMS THAT BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTER WEATHER BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY AND SAT ARE STILL SHAPING UP TO BE COLD DAYS
BUT THEY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAR. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT WILL FEATURE SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DRIFTING BY DUE
TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORT CENTER MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM
NW TO SE. LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH ITS DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE AND
THE VERY LOW DEW POINTS OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL KEEP MOST PRECIP
FROM THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE PANHANDLE.
ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES OUT, SAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

 OUTFLOW WINDS WILL STILL BE BLOWING THROUGH SAT BUT AT A MUCH
REDUCED LEVEL AS THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN TIGHTENING UP THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WELL SOUTH BY FRIDAY.
EXPECTING GALES IN LYNN CANAL AND MOSTLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD TEMPS AND WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING SPRAY IN THE VARIOUS NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMP IS STILL IN THE MID 40S. TAKU
WINDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW
WILL BE LOW IN MAGNITUDE AND THE CRITICAL LEVEL IS NOT IN A GOOD
POSITION FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENTS. STILL THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SMALL CHANGES IN THE INGREDIENTS MAKE THINGS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TIME.

 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRING AN END TO THE COLDER WEATHER AS
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE. MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE BEEN FICKLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE FRONT COMING IN
LATER AND LATER. THE RECENT GFS IS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL
WITH THE PRECIP NOT EVEN REACHING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE UNTIL
MONDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
STILL LINGERING AROUND THE PANHANDLE FOR MOST PLACES TO START OUT
AS SNOW. THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING WARMER WEATHER AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN DIVERGE FOR
SUNDAY ONWARD. DECIDED TO STICK WITH EC OUT TO SAT NIGHT FOR THE
DETAILS IT OFFERED WITH THE COLD AIR IN CANADA. AFTER SAT NIGHT
SWITCHED TO USING THE 0Z GFS AND 12Z EC AND HPC FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR OUT TO THE
WEEKEND THEN DROPS TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ020-022-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-053.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032>036.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042-052.

&&

HANNON/EAL

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.