Gale Warning 376, NWS Juneau, AK

831 
FZAK67 PAJK 161237
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-170100-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE SE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL
SPREAD SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. 

$$

PKZ310-170100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 16 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
233 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

.SHORT TERM...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL
THE SAME ZONES AND ARE LISTED BELOW. A MODEST DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THE ZONES. THE
TOUGHEST DECISION TO MAKE WAS ON THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE PUBLIC ZONE 22 INCLUDING ELFIN COVE AND
PELICAN. THE SNOW SHOULD BE UNMIXED ON THE OUTER COAST N OF CROSS
SOUND, AND MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH OF ELFIN COVE AND PELICAN. THE
CONCLUSION IS THAT ENOUGH SNOW WILL FALL UNMIXED TO WARRANT THE
WARNING FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR THAT
IT WILL AVOID THE RAIN MIX THAT WOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE THE CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

 994 MB LOW 200 NM S OF PACV IS CYCLOGENETIC AND WILL DEEPEN TO
ABOUT 980 MB 100 M SE OF PACV BY 18Z WED. AT THIS TIME THE GOES
IR DEPICTS A BAROCLINIC LEAF TRACKING NE WITH A  CIRRI-FORM WIDTH
COVERING PACV TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER.  THE OVER RUN OF THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN THE PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD GENERATE
UNMIXED SNOW FOR THE OUTER COAST NORTHEAST OF A CSP TO PAWG LN
BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

 THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG RANGE SECTION
BELOW.  THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO HAVE
THE IN ARCTIC OUTFLOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE
ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS NOT UNDERWAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND UPPER RIDGE OVER CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST
AND AN ARCTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALASKA INTERIOR AND YUKON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA. THE STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN ERODING ON FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFRESHED THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE
FOR POPS WITH THE ECMWF FOR ITS BETTER CONSISTENCY WHILE OTHER
MODELS MAKE AN OVERALL GOOD CONSENSUS. PRESSURE FIELDS WERE
BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN REFRESHED THE
EXISTING GRIDS WITH THE HPC OUTPUTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

 GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST DOMAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVES INTO CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN ALASKA INTERIOR AND YUKON. NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES TIGHT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND MODERATE TAKU WINDS SCENARIO OVER
SOUTH DOUGLAS AND DOWNTOWN JUNEAU ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. THIS EPISODE MAY BEAR A POTENTIAL HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN AREAS. GALE FORCE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THIS COLD AIR
OUTBREAK...MAINTAINED FREEZING SPRAY FORECAST FOR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND CHILL MAY DROP TO 20 BELOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GULF
ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
LATE SUNDAY. WITH THE RESIDING COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...THE
INCOMING FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ024-026.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ017>022-025.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051>053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-012-021-022-033>036.

&&

JBT/AHN