Gale Warning 361, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
602 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011

.SHORT TERM...975 MB VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED JUST EAST
OF KODIAK WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKEN TO 985 TONIGHT. A STRONG
140 KT SW JET MAX WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION STRETCHES ACROSS THEN NORTHERN
GULF THEN ARCHS SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT
MOVES OVER THE INNER CHANNELS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES OFF TO THE SE TONIGHT.

 CURRENTLY HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH BIORKA ISLAND RADAR SUGGESTING WINDS 40 KT JUST OFF
SURFACE. FRONT TILTS A BIT TO THE EAST WITH NORTHERN PORTION
WEAKENING THROUGH THIS MORNING. STRONGER SOUTHERN PORTION SPREADS
GALES TO THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS BY LATE MORNING WHICH
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS IN
SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY AND GENERALLY A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. WILL SEE WIND SHIFT TO THE S AND SW
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH KEEPS A FAIRLY LARGE 12 TO 15 FT SWELL FOR
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

 RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND
EXPECTED TO BE MDT FOR CENTRAL TODAY AND MDT TO HEAVY AT TIMES
FOR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVE WITH SLOWER EAST WARD
MOVEMENT PUSHING 24 HR TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES AT WETTER LOCATIONS.
COASTAL AREA WILL SEE RA CHANGE TO SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THERE IS A SECOND WRAP THAT RERUNS RAIN TO THE COAST
BY LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER OFFSHORE, EXPECT A WESTERLY GALE TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

 HAD GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MAINLY USED GFS
FOR GRIDS BUT DID KEEP SLIGHTLY DEEPER EC FOR PRES.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MON
BUT THEN THERE IS DIFFERENCES WITH WHAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE EC HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS
SOLUTION FROM RUN TO RUN WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT AND THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO
WITH THAT SAID DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST AFTER DAY AS THERE IT
HAS A BLEND OF GFS AND HPC AND THAT STILL LOOKED GOOD. BEFORE THAT
USED THE GFS AS IT INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF AT BY SUN MORNING.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A MODERATE 985MB LOW WILL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THAT WILL TRACK NE AND MOVE OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO CANADA SUN NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY SUN MORNING AS WITH
THE UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREAS. THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ALOFT THERE MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COASTAL ARES SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS
BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN. THESE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT
AS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF THEY WILL INCREASE
TO GALES BY MON NIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND RIDGE
BUILDS OVER SE AK. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE INNER CHANNELS.

FOR THE REST WEEK...A STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE AS A TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM THE BERING. THE
TIMING,TRACK AND DEPTH IS STILL UNKNOWN BUT THE LOW/WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING
OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT/LOW WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE GULF
AND INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE
ENTIRE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT INTO CANADA WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE GULF AND WILL SEND THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT
OF COLD AIR OVER THE PANHANDLE TO BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP
BY WED AND THURS NIGHT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033>035.

&&

MM/ABJ