Gale Warning 319, NWS Juneau, AK

304 
FZAK67 PAJK 291136
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-300100-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED 975 MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH SUNDAY.   

$$

PKZ310-300100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN
SHOWER. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

688 
FZAK67 PAJK 292330
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-301400-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE ASSOCIATED 975 MB LOW  IN THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
NEXT STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO THE GULF MONDAY.  

$$

PKZ310-301400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 29 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

947 
FZAK67 PAJK 301136
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-310100-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ310-310100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

984 
FZAK67 PAJK 302230 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
230 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-310100-
230 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ310-310100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
230 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

670 
FZAK67 PAJK 302330
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-311400-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ310-311400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 30 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

648 
FZAK67 PAJK 311142
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-010100-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY. A VERY
STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE.  

$$

PKZ310-010100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 20
FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...NW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

932 
FZAK67 PAJK 312330
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-011400-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF MONDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY. A
VERY STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE.  

$$

PKZ310-011400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT...MAINLY EASTERN PORTION. BECOMING W WIND
50 KT IN THE WESTERN PORTION IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
559 AM AKDT FRI OCT 28 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE RATHER POTENT
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AT THE MOMENT. THE LOW CENTER
IS HOVERING JUST SOUTHWEST OF CAPE DECISION BASED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND DRIFTING NORTHEAST. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS ABOUT 970 MB BASED ON THE 973.3 MB PRESSURE READING FROM CAPE
DECISION AT 12Z. THIS IS SOMEWHAT UP FROM 969 MB THAT WAS
RECORDED AS IT PASSED BUOY 46205 EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN NOTE WORTHY. WINDS GUSTS HAVE SO FAR
PEAKED AT 60 MPH AT ANNETTE, 56 MPH AT KETCHIKAN, 52 MPH AT
HYDABURG, 87 MPH AT CAPE DECISION, AND 74 MPH AT LINCOLN ROCK.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN UP FOR PUBLIC ZONES 26, 27, AND
28 UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORM WARNINGS UP FOR THE
ADJACENT MARINE ZONES. STRONG WIND HEADLINES ALSO REMAIN UP FOR
ZONES 29, 23 AND 25. THE FORMER TWO BEING STRONG WINDS FROM THE
LOW, AND THE LATTER ONE BEING A MOUNTAIN WAVE CASE FOR DOWNTOWN
JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS. PRECIP FROM THIS EVENT HAS NOT BEEN VERY
HEAVY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RECORDED AS JUST A BIT OVER A HALF
INCH IN SIX HOURS AT THORN RIVER AND HAIDA RAWS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE DIEING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. BY 4 PM MOST OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THEN 40 MPH GUSTS.
THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT MAY STILL BE BLOWING GALE THIS EVENING.
PRECIP WILL STILL BE RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. EASTERLY FLOW FARTHER
NORTH WILL STILL BE LIMITING QPF VALUES. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT GOOD. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
BUT THE GFS IS CURRENTLY TOO FAR WEST. THE GFS IS ALSO ABOUT 4 MB
TOO WEAK. EARLIER MODEL RUNS OF MOST OF THE MODELS WERE ALSO TOO
WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL BUT HAVE SINCE RECTIFIED THIS. MODEL
WINDS WERE WELL REPRESENTED AS MOST WORKED WELL WITH WHAT AN
EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED. ELECTED TO USE UK/EC FOR PRESSURE
WITH NAM FOR WINDS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD.

INTO TONIGHT, LOW WILL HAVE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AWAY AND MOVED
INTO CANADA. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A WEAK RIDGE THAT WILL CAUSE A
SWITCH IN THE WIND DIRECTION IN N-S CHANNELS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
EARLY IN THE EVENING. MEANWHILE WIND AND RAIN WILL BE STARTING TO
INCREASE IN THE GULF AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST AS ANOTHER FRONT
RAPIDLY MOVES IN. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO SPREAD INTO THE
OUTER COASTAL MARINE ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND ALSO START SHOWING UP
AGAIN IN CLARENCE STRAIT. MODEL AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT IS GOOD SO
DECIDED TO STICK WITH A GFS/NAM BLEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z MON BUT THEN DIVERGE
SUBSTANTIALLY ON HANDLING OF 2 DEVELOPING WAVE. TRENDED TO EC PRES
FOR GRIDS THROUGH 84 HRS AND STAYED WITH OFFICIAL AND HPC PRODUCTS BEYOND.

&&

.LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS A SERIES OF WELL DEVELOPED WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH EAST ALASKA. A NEW 970 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF ON SATURDAY AND WILL SEND A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
AND GALES INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AS A WAVE LIFTS NE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING ENHANCED RAINS
AND WIND TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH ON
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR MASS ALOFT AND LESS STABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN EASTERN GULF WITH SOLID GALES
MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY. A STRONG WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO NE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE WET ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA STALLS AS THE WEAK WAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST. SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL ALLOW RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN. WILL HAVE SOLID SMCR TO MIN GALES WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT SHOULD EASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT
RAIN TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH
COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT MAKING ATMO UNSTABLE. AT SAME TIME HAVE LOW
REFORMING IN YUKON WHILE RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST GULF FOR SLY
SMCR THROUGH INNER CHANNELS.

WILL START TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN NW PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN LOWS APPROACHING FREEZING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED RA AND
SN SHOWER OR PELLETS INTO MON. WILL HAVE SOLID SMCR TO MIN GALES
WESTERLY ACROSS GULF KEEP SEAS ABOVE 15 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER STRONG OCLUDDED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF BY
MONDAY EVENING AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY. A WAVE ALONG
THIS FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. TIN HIS CASE IT WOULD YIELD STORM FORCE SE WINDS
FOR THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS LATE TUESDAY.
AGAIN IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MDT-HVY RAIN AND A SLOWER EASTERLY
RATE OF MOVEMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. COLDER UPPER
TROUGH AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

.AJK
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1
PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026>028. STRONG WIND UNTIL 7 AM AKDT
THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025. STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING
FOR AKZ023. STRONG WIND UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042. GALE WARNING FOR
PKZ012-031>035-043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ011-013-021-022-051-052.

&&

EAL/MM