Gale Warning 315, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
213 PM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.SHORT TERM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WILL MOVE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DEVELOPING
STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE MID 980S. WIND FORECASTS
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS FOR STRONG GALES TO WEAK STORM FORCE FOR
HECATE STRAIT AND DIXON ENTRANCE REGION. AT THIS TIME ONLY HAVE
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLE...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH WHAT LINCOLN ROCK IS
DOING SO MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE STRONGER WINDS NORTH.

 WITH THE GUSTY WINDS STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON WILL GO WITH
STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY GUSTY FEATURE WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SKAGWAY AREA HAS PROMPTED A SHORT STRONG WIND HEADLINE AS WELL
INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THOSE WINDS SUBSIDE.

 SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. INCOMING SYSTEMS RAIN SHIELD WILL START SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. DO EXPECT A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY HOWEVER DO NOT IT HAVE WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...RAIN AND WIND WILL STILL BE PROBLEMS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD SAT
NIGHT. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN PUBLIC ZONES WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH SAT EVENING. GALES ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE
SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AND CLARENCE STRAIT. WINDS WILL DIE OFF
AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS. RAINS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE SAT NIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LESS FARTHER NORTH DUE TO EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS.

 FARTHER OUT, THE NEXT PUNCH OF WIND AND RAIN COMES FOR SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW HEADS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WIND AND RAIN WILL COME FROM THE INITIAL FRONT.
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE STRONG WINDS ONCE AGAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM AND GALES MAY REVISIT THE AREA AS WELL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS S TO SW FLOW AND VARIOUS SHORT WAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW INTO LATE WEEK.

 LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT. THE DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT
SKETCHY. FOR THE LOW IN THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, OPERATIONAL GFS
IS STILL GOING FOR ITS SOLUTION OF LETTING IT SIT AND SPIN IN THE
CENTRAL GULF UNTIL IT DISSIPATES AWAY. THE EC ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS IT HEADING UP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN HAVING IT
DISSIPATE AWAY. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MORE
SUPPORT FOR THE EC SOLUTION THAN THE GFS AT THIS POINT. DECIDED
TO GO WITH A GFS/EC BLEND THROUGH MON THEN FAVORED MORE EC AND
HPC AFTER THAT POINT. BIGGEST CHANGE PRODUCED WAS A FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MID WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE TO ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-035.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL