Gale Warning 280, NWS Juneau, AK

706 
FZAK52 PAJK 130153 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-131400-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTH. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-131400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
600 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT
LATE. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SW SWELL. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-131400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
600 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT LATE. AREAS OF
FOG LATE. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. AREAS OF
FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-131400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT
LATE. AREAS OF FOG AND RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-131400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT
LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN
THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-131400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO
8 FT LATE. RAIN LATE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

276 
FZAK52 PAJK 131146
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-140100-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
WEAKENING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-140100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-140100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-140100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-140100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING
TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-140100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
218 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2011

.SHORT TERM...MAP ANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER NORTHWEST
CANADA. A WEAK LOW IS ROUGHLY 53N/147W A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF TO WEST OF HAIDA GWAII. A
SECOND LOW IS NEAR COLD BAY WITH AN EXTENSION TO IS PARENT LOW
NEAR 60N/180. THE FRONT WITH THE LOW NEAR COLD BAY EXTENDS SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

 FORECAST REASONING: / THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON / THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF (53N/147W) IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BREAKS DOWN INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND ONSHORE EARLY TUESDAY. JUST EXPECTED LIMITED RAIN WITH THIS
TROUGH...PRIMARILY WEST OF YAKUTAT BUT COULD BE REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS CAPE FAIRWEATHER. THE SECOND FRONT HAS MORE SUPPORT AND
WILL SWEEPING UP THE REMAINS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM WITH IT REACHING
THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

 EXPECT THAT THE ONLY HAZARDS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE
SOME SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS ON THE OUTSIDE...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR CAPE SUCKLING ON
TUESDAY.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...TUES NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXTENDED FORECAST
CONTINUES TO LOOK WET WITH A FEW TROUGHS OR FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FIRST OF WHICH SHOWS UP FOR EARLY WED BRINGING RAIN
AND WIND WITH IT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SMALL CRAFT WINDS
OUT OF IT IN THE OFFSHORE AND CLARENCE STRAIT. RAIN MAY NOT BE
TOO BAD EITHER AS THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING OVER TOP OF THE
PANHANDLE. THE CAUSE OF THIS IS THAT IT WILL BE PUSHING AGAINST
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN GIVING US THE GOOD WEATHER FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. IT WILL SUCCEED AT BOOTING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
EAST.

 BEHIND THE FRONT, SW FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PARKS ITSELF OVER WESTERN ALASKA. AT THE
SURFACE, ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF AND
WILL HIT THE PANHANDLE EARLY FRI. TIMING ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN
THE MODELS FOR THIS FEATURE WITH THE EC BEING THE SLOWER
SCENARIO. AFTER THAT, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER LOW
WILL SKIRT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY SAT.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM FOR WED AND THUR. AT THAT TIME THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE EC FOR
UPDATES WITH THE GFS A CLOSE SECOND. FARTHER OUT DECIDED TO USE
THE HPC GUIDANCE TO EVEN OUT THE DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SEEN IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS OUT THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE TO ABOUT THURS THEN DROPS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AFTER
THAT POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

BEZENEK/EAL