Gale Warning 263, NWS Juneau, AK

935 
FZAK67 PAJK 172327
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-181400-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW OVER THE SE GULF WILL MOVE NORTH SAT NIGHT AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE SUN
NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS. OUTLOOK. A GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO GULF FROM THE WEST MON. 

$$

PKZ310-181400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...EAST OF 140W...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING NE 40 KT. WEST
OF 140W...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL.
.SUN...EAST OF 140W...NE GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT. WEST
OF 140W...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL
SHIFTING TO THE SE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

843 
FZAK67 PAJK 181145
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-190100-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 981 MB GALE FORCE LOW JUST W OF DIXON ENTRANCE WILL DRIFT N OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS INTO CANADA SUN EVENING AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INNER CHANNELS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK. A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY MON EVENING. 

$$

PKZ310-190100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY...

.TODAY...EAST OF 140W...N WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEST OF 140W...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE
AFTERNOON. EAST OF 140W...SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEST OF 140W...SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SE SWELL
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

941 
FZAK67 PAJK 182323
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-191400-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A GALE FORCE LOW NORTH OF KLAWOCK WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ALONG THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. A STORM
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF MON WITH A STRONG
FRONT REACHING THE EASTERN GULF MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ310-191400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT SUN SEP 18 2011 

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT. SE
SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

652 
FZAK67 PAJK 191145
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-200100-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 966 MB STORM 300 NM SE OF COLD BAY WILL DEEPEN TO 962 MB 300 NM S
OF KODIAK ON MON AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER KODIAK EARLY
TUE MORNING. A STRONG ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PANHANDLE
EARLY TUE MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-200100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT MON SEP 19 2011 

...STORM WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
414 PM AKDT FRI SEP 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD COVERS THE PANHANDLE AND
THE RADAR IS PAINTING PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION WITH A NNW
TRAJECTORY. BOTH THE RADAR ECHOS AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ARE INDICATING OF A SLOW TRANSITION TO A MORE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM ONE
SIDE OF THE FRONT TO THE OTHER AND THE STRONG NEGATIVE TILT IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A STATIONARY FRONT. SO FAR, FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT
YET OCCURRED OVER ANY LAND STATIONS BUT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOST COASTAL MARINE ZONE. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
SPOTTY PRECIP IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE, TO INCLUDE SITKA.

FRONTAL PROGRESS AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLOW THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. EVENTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE CATEGORICAL POPS
EXCEPT THOSE LOCATIONS ALONG NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO LIKELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ALL REMAINING PRECIP
WILL BE CONVECTIVE BY TOMORROW MORNING. 6-HOURLY QPF RATES LIMITED
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED EITHER AND THIS IS IN KEEPING WITH THE IDEA
THAT AS THE FRONT LOSES JET SUPPORT, MID LEVEL ENERGY AND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT WILL DIMINISH. ADJUSTED PRE-FRONTAL WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES DOWN BY 5 TO 7 KTS TO A MAX OF 25 KTS, WHICH ARE THE
MAX CONDITIONS OBSERVED UPSTREAM AS THE FRONT HAS CROSSED THE
CENTRAL GULF. HAVE ALSO LEFT THE EAST-WEST CHANNELS AS WELL AS
CLARENCE STRAIT BELOW 25 KTS, SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ANY
OF THE INSIDE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST ISSUANCE.

USED NAM FOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SAT NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
LOW AND THE COASTAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
JET MAX WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE E-SE. WINDS REACHING
GALE FORCE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS...AND
SOON SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN INSIDE WATERS AND LAND AREAS.
EXPECT WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
FOR THE CRAIG/KLAWOCK REGION AND SPREADING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL ARRIVE WITH THE WIND...BECOMING
HEAVY AT TIMES...LEADING TO THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES.

FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE NORTHWARD THIS LOW WILL HAVE THE OPPOSITE
AFFECT. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR
DOWN-SLOPING AND DRYING. AS A RESULT THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER
MIN TEMPS. THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE SUNNY BREAKS AS
WELL. WINDS THROUGH THE N-S INSIDE WATERS WILL TURN OUT OF THE
NORTH TOWARD THE LOW CENTER AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL THROUGH SUNDAY TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO EASE FOR A SHORT PERIOD SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH GALES IN CLARENCE STRAIT LASTING SLIGHTLY LONGER.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE
OFFSHORE AND SPREADING INTO THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
WITH STRONG WINDS REACHING THE COASTAL LAND AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INLAND OVERNIGHT. RAIN ASSOC WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY
AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.

NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE DEPICTED VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
LOW ON SUNDAY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SOLUTIONS FOR THIS HAVE
COME MORE IN LINE IN THE BROAD SCALE...HOWEVER SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW CENTER RESULT IN VASTLY DIFFERENT WINDS
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. HAVE GONE MAINLY WITH THE GFS TODAY
AS IT MATCHED WELL WITH THE GEM/UK AND WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ECMWF AND NAM. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY BUT DIVERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
TRENDED TOWARD THE HPC SOLUTION.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-041>043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/HANNON