Gale Warning 258, NWS Juneau, AK

156 
FZAK52 PAJK 010622 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-011400-
1022 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A 995 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF SITKA LATE TONIGHT THAT WEAKENS
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THURSDAY. OUTLOOK. A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-011400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1022 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-011400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1022 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-011400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1022 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-011400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1022 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SW SWELL IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-011400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1022 PM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 



$$

109 
FZAK52 PAJK 011135
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-020100-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST TO CANADA
TODAY AS A WEAK LOW IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE DISSIPATES.
OUTLOOK. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FRIDAY.    

$$

PKZ041-020100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-020100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-020100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. W SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-020100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-020100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI...SE GALE INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
551 AM AKDT WED AUG 31 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST DOMAIN THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE UNDER EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING THEN MOVE INTO CANADA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OVER
ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH
THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS THE RIDGE TOP MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
ENHANCED AND BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT WINDS
OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SKAGWAY. THE
INCOMING FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING THE WINDS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS.
CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST DOMAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT. CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BEGIN
OVER YAKUTAT AREA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN QUICKLY MOVE OVER ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT RANGE
SECTION ABOVE IS THE LAST IN ZONAL FLOW, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY DIMINISH IN PRECIP RATES AND WINDS THU. NOTE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK: THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM TRACKING E THROUGH OUR AOR
IS THE REASON THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN A RELATIVELY
SHORT TIME.

A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MATTER FOR THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL
BE A CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM ON A LARGER SCALE THAN THE FIRST SYSTEM.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS THE BEGINNING OF A FAMILY OF LOWS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING S FM OVER PAWD. AT 00Z
SAT A LOW ON THE POLAR FRONT ZONE SHOULD REACH 986 MB ABOUT
100 NM SE OF PAWD AS THE ASSOCD FLOW FM SURFACE TO TROP SPREADS
E OVER OUR ENTIRE AOR.

ANOTHER LARGE-SCALE CYCLOGENETIC SYSTEM WILL OCCUR WITHIN 300 NM
S OF THE AK PEN BUT THE MODELS ARE UNSETTLED ON THE SOLUTION.

MODELS: USED THE GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS FOR THE
GULF FOR THAT LOW THAT AT 00Z SAT SHOULD BE ABOUT 986MB AND 100 S
OF PAWD.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ011-012-022-033>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

AHN/JBT