Gale Warning 232, NWS Juneau, AK

476 
FZAK51 PAJK 070646 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-071600-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH TUE.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST ON
WED. 

$$

PKZ011-071600-
GLACIER BAY-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-071600-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-071600-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-071600-
ICY STRAIT-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5
FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-071600-
CROSS SOUND-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 5
FT.
.TUE...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-071600-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-071600-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-071600-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-071600-
FREDERICK SOUND-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-071600-
SUMNER STRAIT-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-071600-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
1043 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT LATE. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
259 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND SFC RIDGE EXTEND NNW INTO THE
GULF FM A PT 300 NM SW OF PAKT TO OVER PAMD. THIS RIDGE IS
DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE AS THE RESULT OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
GULF AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG RANGE SECTION BELOW. A VORT MAX IS
MOVING SE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME AND WAS
THE TRIGGER FOR THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE AOR LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY. AS THIS TROF PULLS FARTHER AWAY THE SHOWERS ARE
ENDING AND A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SFC DRYING IS TAKING PLACE DUE TO
THE LOSS OF CLOUD COVER. CHANGES ARE SMALL AND CONFIDENCE IS
AVERAGE.

 RADIATIVE FOG SHOULD OCCUR IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS TONIGHT.
BESIDES THE WIND LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE, THERE ARE OTHER
FACTORS IMPORTANT FOR FOG TONIGHT: FIRST THE LOSS OF CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING LATE TODAY WILL ONLY ALLOW LIMITED DRYING. SECOND,
THERE TENDS TO  BE SOME LIMIT TO HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES BECOME
FOR EVENTS CLOSE TO THE SOLSTICE, I.E. NEAR THE MAX OF DAYLIGHT
LENGTH.

 SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT FOR SCA IN NRN LYNN CANAL AND FOR
CLARENCE STRAIT TUE AFTERNOON.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN FEATURES INCLUDE AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE OUTER COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST ON FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE NEXT WEEKEND. A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND ATTEMPT TO
DISPLACE THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, VERY GOOD
CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z MODEL RUNS. A
LITTLE BIT LESS SO IN ECMWF, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF BY NEXT SUNDAY. RMOP VALUES START OUT QUITE HIGH, BUT THEN
FALL TO PREDICTABILITY PERCENTAGES OF LESS THAN 10 TO ONLY AS
MUCH AS 30 PERCENT. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR BOTH THE GEFS AND
THE ECMWF DO NOT REVEAL ANYTHING TREMENDOUSLY OUT OF THE
ORDINARY. SUM TOTAL IS AN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OR SENSATIONAL WEATHER EXPECTED.

 MAIN FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST IS A FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE PRESSING UP AGAINST
A SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS IT TRACKS EAST
AND WEAKENING AS A RESULT. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE
OUTER COAST AS AN INTACT FEATURE BUT HAVE SOME POP IN THE GRIDS
TO REFLECT SPOTTY PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT OVER THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE. PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RE-ORIENT AFTER THIS FRONT
AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO THE COAST, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES AND CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE PATTERN WILL RE-ORIENT ONCE AGAIN
BY NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE
OUTER COAST. RESULTING DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH A THERMAL
LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST MOUNTAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.

 HAVE A VERY CONSISTENT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE THAT REACHES SMALL
CRAFT INTENSITY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHICH SHOWS UP LATE IN
THE DAY AND DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HAVE A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKER WESTERLY WIND OVER CROSS SOUND
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF ICY STRAIT. THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE AND
REQUIRE A FEW EXTRA KNOTS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
ELSEWHERE, NOT A LOT OF WIND IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST.

 USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN AN
EC/GFS/HPC BLEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ012-021-022-033-035-036-041-042. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO
SEAS FOR PKZ043-051.

&&

JBT/FRITSCH