Gale Warning 230, NWS Juneau, AK

801 
FZAK52 PAJK 192339
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-201400-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL STALL ALONG THE OUTER
COAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-201400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-201400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-201400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-201400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-201400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

430 
FZAK52 PAJK 200628 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1026 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-210030-
1026 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL STALL ALONG THE OUTER
COAST TONIGHT AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-210030-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1026 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-210030-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1026 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-210030-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1026 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-210030-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1026 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
S SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-210030-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1026 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
408 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING THE EFFECTS OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WEST ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OVER THE
PANHANDLE, BUT THE RAIN HAS BEEN DIMINISHING ALL MORNING. A VERY
PROMINENT BREAK IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS NOW OVER WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

A THIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST OFF THE OUTER COAST AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL STABLE ONSHORE FLOW HAS A MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE COVERED IN A MID LEVEL OVERCAST. FARTHER OFFSHORE...AN
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC CLOUD SHIELD IS ADVANCING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND IS FORECAST TO BE JUST ENTERING THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PARENT LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE WEST...NEVER GETTING MUCH FARTHER THAN 150W...BEFORE
IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN, FILL AND TRACK NORTH OVERLAND VICINITY COOK
INLET. RESULT OF THIS WILL BE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL
OVER THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE COMING ASHORE.

WHAT IS LEFT IN BETWEEN REPRESENTS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE SHORT TERM. CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO BROKEN CLOUDS BY MORNING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST AND COME TO LIE
OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
REVERSE AND BECOME OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HAVE A GENERAL DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS
PROJECTED TO SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES WILL ORGANIZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY MAXING OUT AT 30 TO 35 KTS OR SO VERY EARLY IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN. WILL ALSO SEE A LOCALIZED EASTERLY OUTFLOW WIND OUT OF
CROSS SOUND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

USED A BLEND OF NAM AND ECMWF FOR PRESSURE AND WIND. BLENDED GFS
AND GEM INTO EXISTING POP GRIDS. ADJUSTED TEMPS WITH SREF BC AND
MOS BC. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT FOR CLOUD
COVER, WHICH MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF WITH A FRONT REACHING THE COASTAL AREAS
AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE RAIN MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY INLAND. FRIDAY THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF SHORE SLIGHTLY AND
DISSIPATE...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
AREAS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND FORECAST...MODELS HAVE VARIED WITH SOLUTIONS. THE
OVERALL FLOW ALOFT IS PARALLEL WITH THE PANHANDLE WHICH WOULD
LIMIT OROGRAPHIC LIFT...HOWEVER WEAK VORTS PASSING BY COULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THEREFORE HAVE GONE WITH A
MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME SUNNY BREAKS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

HAVE GONE WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST WITH LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE LOCATION OF THE
RIDGE IN THE SHORTER TERM AND HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES IN WILL
AFFECT THE WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE CHANNELS. OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER IN THE SHORTER TERM HOWEVER WOULD NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH
DEPENDING ON MODEL. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE EC MOVING IT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GFS
DEEPENING IT AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH WOULD START TO
AFFECT OFFSHORE SWELL MONDAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR PRECIP OVER THE LAND AREAS...THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD KEEP THE PANHANDLE FAIRLY DRY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
WETTER.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/HANNON