Gale Warning 221, NWS Juneau, AK

109 
FZAK52 PAJK 230642 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1040 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-231400-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 975 MB LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AND TRACK NORTH TOWARDS KODIAK THROUGH SATURDAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CANADA WILL
WEAKEN IN PLACE. 

$$

PKZ041-231400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-231400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1040 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-231400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1040 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-231400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-231400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

569 
FZAK52 PAJK 231142
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-240100-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY NE...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES TO THE OUTER COAST OF SE
ALASKA BY SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-240100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-240100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-240100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-240100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-240100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...A LOW VISIBLE IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND THEN
NORTH OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MORE APPARENT
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY IS LOCATED NEAR 50N SOUTH OF KODIAK. A MULTI
LAYERED CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM.
PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL MARINE ZONES WITH AN EASTERLY BARRIER JET CLOSE
COASTAL OVER MARINE ZONE 52 AND WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST
OVER ZONE 17 WEST OF ICY BAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN YUKON IS
PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SKAGWAY. HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL HAVE CONTINUED, SO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.

GENERAL TREND FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE FOR THE RIDGE
OVER THE PANHANDLE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN PLACE AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS TRACKS EAST, AND THEN NORTH TOWARDS KODIAK. PRECIPITATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WILL DIMINISH
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CHANGE TO SHOWERS. PRECIP FROM A  VERY
WEAKLY DEFINED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH THE OUTER COAST SOUTH OF CAPE FAIRWEATHER, BUT WILL LIKELY
REINFORCE THE RAIN CURRENTLY GOING ON OVER ZONE 17 FROM YAKUTAT
AND POINTS WEST.

USED GFS AS A FOUNDATION FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. BLENDED GFS
AND GEM IN THE POP FIELD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA HOLDS ON
BUT WEAKENS INTO MONDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA HAS FRONTAL BAND THAT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND SEEMS TO STALL OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE
MARINE LAYER OVER THE PANHANDLE PERSISTS. A TRAILING WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/FAR SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ABOUT 50N
WILL MOVE ON SHORE THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AROUND NORTHERN
VANCOUVER ISLAND MONDAY AND IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT WILL HELP
START LIFTING THE STALL FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. THE PRECIP WILL LIFT INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THINK THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION I
EXPECT TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE BAND MOVES
NORTH WARD SLOWLY.

WEAK FLOW SEEMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE LONG RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HINTING A LOW
MOVING TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST FRONT AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND THEN LIKELY INLAND. FOLLOWED BY A LOW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
GULF AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE
MODELS START DIVERGING MORE LOWERING CONFIDENCE TO AVERAGE AT
BEST.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-041-042.

&&

FRITSCH/BEZENEK