Gale Warning 219, NWS Juneau, AK

189 
FZAK51 PAJK 120457 AAC
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-122300-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH
TUE. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF WILL MOVE N AND
WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SE ALASKA LATE MON NIGHT. A
WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT
AND MOVE TO THE SE GULF BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

$$

PKZ011-122300-
GLACIER BAY-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.



$$

PKZ012-122300-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-122300-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-122300-
ICY STRAIT-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-122300-
CROSS SOUND-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-122300-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-122300-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-122300-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-122300-
FREDERICK SOUND-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-122300-
SUMNER STRAIT-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-122300-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
856 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1245 PM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF THROUGH TUE. A LOW PRESSURE TROF IS JUST ENTERING THE SE
GULF AND WILL CONTINUE NNE INTO THE ERN GULF AND SE AK TONIGHT
BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS IT GETS TO THE NRN AREA LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL FORM JUST S OF THE ERN GULF
LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO LIFT NWD INTO THE SE GULF TUE...SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES. A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP JUST SW OF THE HAIDA GWAII (FORMERLY QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS) AREA TUE AFTERNOON.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW WILL GO FROM SSW TO SSE OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT...AND BECOME MORE SELY TUE. THIS NORMALLY LEADS TO A
DIMINISHING PRECIP THREAT ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE
TROF MOVING IN TONIGHT AND FRONT TUE WILL KEEP GOOD DEEP LAYER
LIFT GOING MUCH OF THIS TIME SO POPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY
NORMALLY WOULD BE IN THIS DEVELOPING FLOW SCENARIO. THAT BEING
SAID...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SRN AND COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE MOST
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND WILL GENERALLY KEEP CAT POPS IN
THOSE AREAS THROUGH TUE. POPS WILL DROP SLOWLY AS YOU GO N AND
E...WITH LOWEST POPS AROUND THE PAGY AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRECIP THREAT WILL ALSO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT AROUND PAYA AS LOWER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ELY LATER TONIGHT AND TUE.

 OTHERWISE...AIRMASS IS STILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AREA SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SOME SNOW GOING
INTO TUE MORNING THERE. WARMER AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NWD INTO
THE SRN AREA LATER TONIGHT AND TUE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING OCCLUDED
FRONT SO EXPECT PRECIP OVER THE S TO REMAIN RAIN EXCEPT FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP AROUND HYDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUE.

 WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE A PROBLEM ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE SCA
LEVEL SE WINDS IN CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT INTO TUE...WITH SCA
LEVEL E WINDS DEVELOPING OUT OF CROSS SOUND LATER TONIGHT. MAY BE
A SMALL AREA OF SCA WINDS IN THE FAR SERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON AS
OCCLUDED FRONT STRENGTHENS JUST SW OF THERE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON
THE HIGH SIDE ESPECIALLY SERN GULF AREA...SO SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE
KEPT GOING SE OF THE CAPE FAIRWEATHER AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENING ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
WITH A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY FADING OUT TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW...AS A BIG SURFACE GYRO...OVER THE GULF
WILL CONSEQUENTLY DISORGANIZE AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN CANADA CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTING
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE HINTING A DEVELOPING LOW
NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS WAS DRAWN FROM THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL SPREADS BECAME LARGER THURSDAY EVENING ONWARD AND
THE ENSEMBLE BASED HPC OUTPUTS WERE USED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIODS.

 A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF LATE
TUESDAY WILL DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS WITHIN THE AREA OF THE BIG GYRO BUT A SERIES OF WEAK
TROUGHS CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EMBEDDED SMALLER FEATURES ARE
HANDLES A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY WITH VARIOUS MODELS FOR TIMING AND
POSITION...BUT IN GENERAL INCREASING OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUBPRESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS
WILL ENTRAIN THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY THE MID WEEK AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY LIKELY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...EXCEPT THE
NORTHERN MOST ZONES WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AT
NIGHT TIMES THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING NORTHERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND INNER CHANNELS THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ042-043.

&&

RWT/AHN