Gale Warning 212, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
145 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2011

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND TO THE PANHANDLE AREA OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SAT EVENING EARLY SAT NIGHT. THIS HAS
SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO THE AREA WITH MORE EXPECTED INTO THE
PANHANDLE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS PROTECTED A
LITTLE BY THE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC MOVING TO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT.

 THIS LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO NEAR 990 MB AND THE FRONTAL BAND
REACHING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL START A WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT
REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NEAR MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
IN AREAS NEAR THIS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT THINK THEY WILL BE
STAYING BELOW ADVISORY GUSTS.

 RAIN IS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WHILE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LESSENING IN AMOUNTS AND EVEN
TAPERING OFF IN AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TRACK OF LOW TO THE
SE...AND NOW TAKE IT TO THE FAR SERN GULF OR TO WRN DIXON
ENTRANCE. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IDEA ON THIS
LOW...TAKING IT TO JUST OFFSHORE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY 00Z
TUE...THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT NE THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE MON
NIGHT. LOW LOOKS LIKE IT REACHES PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 53N/140W
AROUND 06Z MON...THEN IT WEAKENS AS IT HEADS NE TOWARD THE 00Z TUE
POSITION. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z UKMET...12Z
ECMWF...AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THIS SCENARIO. USED THE 00Z
ECMWF FROM 00Z MON TO 12Z TUE. FOR LATER PERIODS...DECIDED TO
LEAVE CURRENT GRIDS AS IS AS THEY STILL REPRESENTED A GOOD
COMPROMISE AMONGST THE MODELS ESPECIALLY FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM.

 WITH THE FURTHER SE LOW TRACK SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...PRECIP
WILL BE MOST FOCUSED FURTHER SE...AND THE NRN AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS PRECIP THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED DUE TO A MORE ELY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO THE PAYA AREA WHERE THE SE
SHIFT OF THE LOW TRACK MADE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE...AND POPS
WERE LOWERED MORE IN THAT AREA THAN ANYWHERE ELSE. IF THE LOW
TRACK CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD...THE NRN PANHANDLE MAY NEED
FURTHER REDUCTION IN POPS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. ONCE LOW
MOVES  INLAND...FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE OVER THE NRN AREAS AND
PRECIP THREAT WILL GO UP AGAIN TUE. DID END UP CONTINUING A WIND
ADVY FOR ZONE 27 FROM SHORT TERM THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUN...AND ZONES
23 AND 28 MAY NEED WIND ADVYS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE SUN NIGHT
PERIOD AS WELL. WITH THE LOW TRACK FURTHER SE THE THREAT FROM
POTENTIAL SECOND WRAP OF FRONT IS DECREASING AS THAT WILL LIKELY
STRIKE FURTHER SE...AROUND DIXON ENTRANCE OR THE HAIDA GWAII AREA
MON.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AKZ027.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-033-035-036-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ051.

&&

BEZENEK/RWT