Gale Warning 210, NWS Juneau, AK

332 
FZAK67 PAJK 070612
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1012 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-080015-
1012 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SE AK WILL MOVE E INTO
CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN
GULF WILL REACH THE EASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING.     

$$

PKZ310-080015-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1012 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT SHIFTING TO WEST 30 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

327 
FZAK67 PAJK 071142
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-080100-
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL REACH THE
EASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND BE EAST OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.      

$$

PKZ310-080100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

974 
FZAK67 PAJK 071919 AAA
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1119 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-080100-
1119 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL REACH THE
EASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY EVENING...AND BE EAST OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAKENING LOW WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.      

$$

PKZ310-080100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
1119 AM AKDT THU APR 7 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

348 
FZAK67 PAJK 072315
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-081400-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REACH THE
EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING...AND MOVE EAST PAST THE PANHANDLE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
ALASKA SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  

$$

PKZ310-081400-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 7 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

335 
FZAK67 PAJK 081142
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 8 2011 

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-090100-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 8 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE EAST PAST THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WEAK LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  

$$

PKZ310-090100-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 8 2011 

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. W SWELL. SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...WIND VARIABLE LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
235 PM AKDT WED APR 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN PUBLIC ZONE
17 AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST INTO ZONE 22 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST ARE SMALL. 18Z THU AN
OCCLUSION WILL EXTEND SSE FM PAWD THAT WILL MOVE NE PAST PAMD ABT
00Z. THIS OCFNT IS ASSOCD WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SPREADING INTO
OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THU. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS WERE
USED.

500H TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS SSE FM OVER PABR T0 PAFA TO PACV AT
THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE E AND WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING A PAJN TO PASI LINE TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE ZONE 17 AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST INTO ZONE 22
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE 12Z PAYA RAOB, THE
SFC TEMPERATURES TO OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE DIFFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER THE
CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS NOT HIGH AND THIS LIMITS
HOW STRONG DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE.

THE OCFNT MENTIONED ABOVE IS A STRONG FEATURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL, BEGINNING THU, GENERATE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN
SOUTHERN YUKON TRRTY AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. NOTE THAT WIND
INCREASES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HAND OFF FROM THE THE SHORT
RANGE FORECAST TO THE LONG RANGE, I.E. FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS TREND OF FURTHER WIND INCREASES WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE PANHANDLE N OF FREDERICK SOUND. PLEASE SEE
THE LONG RANGE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST
ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FAIRLY DEEP ONSHORE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF TROUGHS INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVER THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY ENERGY SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN GULF WHICH TURNS FLOW
OFFSHORE FOR NORTHERN WHILE REMAINING ONSHORE FOR SOUTHERN.

EXPECT SMCR TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH OCCLUDED FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR INSIDE WATERS. WILL START OFF WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
(-18 MB PAHN-CYDB) BETWEEN RIDGE TO SE AND LEE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN YUKON. THIS WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. GALES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS ALSO DROP OFF IN THE EVENING. RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF AND WILL SPREAD TO SOUTHERN HALF BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE STILL IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY START OUT AS
SNOW FOR THE HAINES AREA BUT WITH MODERATE SLY WILL GO TO ALL
RAIN. AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER AN INCH IN THE WETTER LOCATIONS AND
PROBABLY APPROACHING 1 INCH ELSEWHERE.

A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH
SECONDARY TROUGH WITH AMOUNTS EQUALLY AS PLENTIFUL. STILL HAVE
FAVORABLE SE GRADIENTS THROUGH INNER CHANNELS AND WILL BE LOCALLY
BREEZY WITH SMCR CONTINUING.

CAA BEGINS IN ERNEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ATMO BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE
SO WILL SWITCH PRECIP OVER TO SHOWERS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL
COOL AND BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS NORTHERN HALF BUT DONT SEE
ANY ACCUMS. AS ENERGY SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN GULF POPS DROP OFF ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT STAY LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TIMING AND
POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES START. USED GFS FRESHEN GRIDS THROUGH DAY 4
THEN OPTED TO MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ022-041-042.

&&

JBT/MM