Gale Warning 200, NWS Juneau, AK

492 
FZAK52 PAJK 111246
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SAT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE SE
GULF SAT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT THEN DRIFT N THROUGH SAT NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

956 
FZAK52 PAJK 112149 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1245 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-120100-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW CANADA WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
SAT. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE SE
GULF SAT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT THEN DRIFT N THROUGH SAT NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ041-120100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-120100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1245 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-120100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1245 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-120100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1245 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-120100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2011 

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
5 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW
OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THE LOW CENTER. PRECIPITATION BANDS WRAP AROUND THE LOW WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FROM KLAWOCK
EAST TO KAKE TO PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL. CLOUDINESS SLIGHTLY
INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTH OF JUNEAU BUT
THE NORTHERN AREAS REMAINED CLOUD FREE. EARLY MORNING MERCURY
READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOST AREAS AND WIND SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS...TO THE MIDDLE 20S
IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CANADA PRODUCES CONTINUED OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WITH STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOST INNER CHANNELS WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND
NORTHERN OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING WHILE LIFTING A
LITTLE TO COAST MOUNTAIN EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA CONTINUING TO PRODUCE OFFSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST DOMAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE NAM
HANDLES THE LOW TRACK BEST AND WAS OPTED TO REFRESH THE INHERITED
GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS THE WEAKENING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS DISSIPATING...POPS
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN CONTINUE TAPERING OFF EASTWARD ACROSS
THE HYDER AREA INTO THE CANADIAN SIDE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS...SNOW LEVEL WILL BE ABOVE 1K FEET TODAY
AND LOWERING TO AROUND 500 FEET TONIGHT..EXCEPT NEAR HYDER. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
DUE TO NORTHWARD INCREASING CLOUDS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONLY
SEVERAL DEGREES. DUE TO THE PERSISTING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE
GULF...NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS NEAR AND OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES AND BAYS. KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES
17/18/19/25 THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
OMEGA BLOCK STILL HOLDING WITH UPR HIGH CENTER STATIONARY OVR THE
BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING. WEAK TROF ALF PERSISTS OVR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND WILL HOLD INTO FRI. UPR LOW DEVELOPS OFF JET BY 00Z SAT
WITH SOME COLD AIR SW OF THE CHARLOTTES OVR A SFC GALE CENTER AROUND
990 MB. ALL 00Z OPS MODELS FORECAST THIS DEVELOPMENT BUT TRACK VARIES
GREATLY BY 00Z SUN. POOR CONFIDENCE IN LATCHING ONTO AN ONE OF THESE
INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS. STARTED OUT DOING ALL SORTS OF FANCY COMBOS
AND ENDED UP USING PREVIOUS DAY SHIFTS PLAN BUT A LITTLE DRIER THAN
HPC POPS. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEVELOPS A STORM FORCE CENTER 964 MB NEAR
50N 140W BY 00Z MON WHICH WOULD CONTINUE STRONG OFFSHORE WIND AND
SUPPORTS DRY IDEA. ALL MODELS RAPIDLY FILL THIS STORM AND HPC AND
10/06Z GFS SUPPORT DEVELOPING ANOTHER RIGHT OFF VANCOUVER ISL. VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE HANGING ON TO ANY OF THESE SO WILL STAND PAT AND HOPE
THAT 12Z CYCLE BRINGS SOME AGREEMENT. - JC
&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADV TIL 5 AM AKST FRI AKZ017>019-025.
         WIND ADV TIL 5 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012-013-031.
         STORM WARNING PKZ012.
         GALES PKZ011-013-021-022-031>035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ036-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041.
&&

AHN