Gale Warning 172, NWS Juneau, AK

829 
FZAK52 PAJK 021244
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030100-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG LOW JUST SW OF VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL MOVE N AND
WEAKEN...REACHING DIXON ENTRANCE BY LATE WED EVENING...THEN
DRIFTING W AND DISSIPATING OVER THE SE GULF THU. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS PERSISTING
THROUGH WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ041-030100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-030100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-030100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
11 FT. 
.THU...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND.
SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2011 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2011 

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 PM AKST TUE MAR 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A WEAKENING
LOW OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES WITH ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE YUKON.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE GULF SHOW OUTFLOW WINDS NICELY. AS THIS
CURRENT LOW WEAKENS A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE US WEST COAST
WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 968 MB AND TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE QUEEN
CHARLOTTES TONIGHT INTO WED. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH BUT MAIN ISSUE FOR US WILL BE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TONIGHT WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECEASE IN WINDS AND OUTFLOW GUSTS,
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT SAID KEPT ALL CURRENT ADVY AND WARNING AS
IS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER WED WILL DEVELOPING
CRITICAL LEVEL ALONG WITH INVERSION AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW WHICH
WILL PRODUCE A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT WITH TAKU WINDS OVER
DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND SOUTH DOUGLAS GUSTS IN THE 70 TO 90 MPH
RANGE. INNER CHANEL MARINE AREAS WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT TO GALE
FORCE WINDS INCREASING OVER NIGHT INTO WED WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES WILL
INCREASE TO 65 TO 75 KTS WED. OUTFLOW WINDS OVER SE AK COASTAL
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE ONLY PRECIP WILL BE SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE SCATTERED AS
OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE BEEN SHEARING APART THE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CURRENT LOW. SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL BE MOVING IN
WED EVENING AS THE NEXT LOW TRACKS NORTH. NAM AND EC WERE
INITIALIZING WELL WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COAST
MOUNTAINS AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS
WAS STILL SHOWING THE SAME SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT DID NOT RESOLVE
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ITS
NORTHERLY EXTENT BUT THIS WAS FAIRLY MINOR. DID SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE GRIDS USING NAM AND WRF MAINLY FOR LOCAL WIND DIRECTIONS
AND SPEEDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FOCUS WAS ON THE MORE NEAR TERM AT LEAST TO THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STILL IN THE FAIRLY STABLE SITUATION OF THERE WAS
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BEING DONE. WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AND
THE WINTER WEATHER (FOR THE WIND CHILLS...WINDS... AND BLOWING
SNOW) FOR THE SKAGWAY WERE LEFT AS IS. LOCALLY VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN AND COASTAL PASS AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE GRADIENTS AND THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREAS FOR THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS TO WEAKEN WHERE SPEEDS
WILL LOWER TO A LESS THREATENING LEVEL.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE A WEAK FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH INTO
THE REGION. THE SNOW HAS BEEN HINDERED BY DOWNSLOPE DRYING FLOW.
ACCUMULATIONS I THINK SHOULD BE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO FOR THE
SOUTHERN CLARENCE AND MISTY FJORD REGIONS. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE
AND FALL APART THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST. THINK
SNOW WILL TRY TO REACH NORTH TO JUNEAU - ICY STRAIT AREA.. BUT
DOWN SLOPE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AS
WELL... HAVE CALLED IT A FEW FLURRIES.

LATER PERIODS WERE REFRESHED WITH HPC GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY... BUT
IT IS SEEMS TO BE HEADED BACK TO A DRY OUT FLOW PATTERN AGAIN POTENTIALLY.

CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD TO THE WEEKEND.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019>022-026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ022-032-034-035.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-021-022-031-032-035-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-034-036-041-042-052.

&&

PRB/BEZENEK