Gale Warning 163, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
320 PM AKST MON FEB 28 2011

.SHORT TERM...NO SURPRISES IN THE SHORT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHWEST CANADA HAS A STRONG OUTFLOW WIND PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PRESENTLY 2 HIGH WIND WARNING AND ABOUT A HALF
DOZEN WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS... AND WIND/WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA FRO THE WHITE PASS. MARINE
AREAS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS OF 50 TO 80 KT DEPENDS ON
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN RATHER GUSTY.

 DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY THOUGH THERE IS CLOUDS INCREASING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON A
FEW FLURRIES COULD START LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM/WRF USED FOR
ANY ADJUSTMENTS DONE...THOUGH MAINLY JUST ADJUSTED THE PRESSURE
FIELD.

 DID EXTEND OUT HIGH WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES TO COVER NEXT
INCOMING STORM. MORE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WIND IS LIKELY IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AROUND WEDNESDAY. EAST WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT SEA LEVEL BETWEEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING A TAKU WIND IN THE JUNEAU AREA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT CAUSED FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM JUNEAU TO SKAGWAY AND THE CENTRAL OUTER
COAST IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE HIGHEST MEASURED WIND GUST WAS
150 MPH /130 KNOTS/ AT SHEEP MOUNTAIN SOUTH OF JUNEAU AT 3540
FEET ELEVATION. HIGHEST WIND GUST AT SEA LEVEL WAS 103 MPH /90
KNOTS/ AT CAPE SPENCER IN CROSS SOUND.

A NEW STORM BREWING MONDAY HALF WAY BETWEEN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
HAWAII WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN WIND TUESDAY... STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING STORM CENTER NEARS DIXON
ENTRANCE. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE WINDS
CAUSING LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE START
OF THE LONG TERM BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH DETAILS ON THE LOCATION OF
THE LOW WED. GFS HAS BEEN MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH NAM AND EC IN
BETTER AGREEMENT. EC RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WAS ALSO BETTER TODAY.
UPDATED GRIDS WITH A BLEND ON 12Z NAM12 TO DAY 3 THEN BLENDED 12Z
EC MAKING A TRANSITION TO 12Z HPC. MAIN CHANGES WERE IN DEEPEN AND
TRACK THE WED LOW A BIT FURTHER NW. THE OTHER MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO
EXPEND WARNINGS AND ADVY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS
ON WED WERE CALCULATED USING 15:1 RATIO DUE TO COLD TEMPS. ATTM
FEEL AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW SNOW ADVY LEVELS AS OUTFLOW WINDS AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WILL KEEP QPF VALUES LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ019>022-026-029.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-024-028.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ021.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-031-034-035.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ032.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034>036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-041-042-052.

&&

BEZENEK/PRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1046 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011

AKZ017>029-012000-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT
ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
1046 AM AKST MON FEB 28 2011

...ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT SOUTHEAST ALASKA MID WEEK...

ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WIND IS LIKELY IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AROUND WEDNESDAY. EAST WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT SEA LEVEL BETWEEN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE INCLUDING A TAKU WIND IN THE JUNEAU AREA.

THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT CAUSED FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FROM JUNEAU TO SKAGWAY AND THE CENTRAL OUTER
COAST IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE HIGHEST MEASURED WIND GUST WAS
150 MPH /130 KNOTS/ AT SHEEP MOUNTAIN SOUTH OF JUNEAU AT 3540
FEET ELEVATION. HIGHEST WIND GUST AT SEA LEVEL WAS 103 MPH /90
KNOTS/ AT CAPE SPENCER IN CROSS SOUND.

A NEW STORM BREWING MONDAY HALF WAY BETWEEN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
HAWAII WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN WIND TUESDAY... STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE APPROACHING STORM CENTER NEARS DIXON
ENTRANCE. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THE REAL STORY WILL BE THE WINDS
CAUSING LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.