Gale Warning 138, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 19, 2011, 9:45 AM AKST (18:45 UTC)

Expired

Feb 19, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

251 
FZAK51 PAJK 191850 AAA
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATEDCSP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
945 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-200100-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SE AK SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE YUKON ON SUN. 

$$

PKZ011-200100-
GLACIER BAY-
945 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-200100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
945 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY LATE. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ013-200100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
945 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-200100-
ICY STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-200100-
CROSS SOUND-
945 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LATE. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-200100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-200100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-200100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW...THEN RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT LATE. RAIN...THEN SNOW
LATE. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-200100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-200100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-200100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW AND RAIN LATE. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 19, 4:52 AM AKST, 4 hours 53 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AKST SAT FEB 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A LOW NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS YAKUTAT. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FROM JUNEAU
NORTH TO SKAGWAY. WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WARMED UP IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS AND
CAUSED SNOW TURNED TO RAIN AT YAKUTAT AND SITKA AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. A KNIFE CUT
EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWN BY THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. A POSITIVELY TILTING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM ALASKAN INTERIOR
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN INTENSE MOISTURE CHANNEL TRAPPED
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE CONTINUOUSLY FEEDING PRECIPITATION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

 MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY AND TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE
INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE 06Z RUN NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STREAM BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND THE RIDGE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE OCCLUSION HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN ITS
FORWARDING SPEED A BIT AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR YAKUTAT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BY TONIGHT.
ISSUED A NEW WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SKAGWAY AND EXTENDED
ONGOING WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH
3 AM SUNDAY AS WELL.

 SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS BUT THE
ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS. RAIN ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS DUE TO WARMED UP TEMPERATURES WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO SNOW
AS A COLDER AIR MOVING IN THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY TO
AFFECT OFFSHORE AND CENTRAL OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOST OF INNER CHANNELS TODAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
INCLUDED IN THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR SITKA AIRPORT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AK GULF. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER DIXON ENTRANCE WILL
WEAKEN AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE YUKON. PRECIP WILL END ABRUPTLY
SUN WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. A THE RIDGE BUILDS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK DOWN THE EASTERN EDGE FROM THE AK
INTERIOR MON BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP, SNOW TO THE NORTH
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS. DEPARTURE
OF THIS SHORT WAVE WILL THEN LEAVE THE PANHANDLE UNDER DRY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ARCTIC FRONT IN PLACE.
BY MID WEEK WITH HIGH OVER THE YUKON AND INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN OUTFLOW AND NORTHERN
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. BY NEXT WEEKEND
ANOTHER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT BRINGS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP.

 MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DECENT INITIALIZATION. FELT
THEN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS LOOKED BETTER THAN THE EC.
ALSO GFS TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE NAM. UPDATED
CURRENT GRIDS WITH 00Z GFS WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES SUCH AS
INCREASED WINDS IN THE GULF STARTING 09Z MON.

 &&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AKST SUNDAY
     FOR AKZ026.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ018>025.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-051-052.

&&

AHN/PRB

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.