Gale Warning 102, NWS Juneau, AK

Issued

Feb 1, 2011, 12:35 PM AKST (21:35 UTC)

Expired

Feb 1, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

NWS Juneau, AK

326 
FZAK51 PAJK 012143 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1235 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-020100-
954 AM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA TONIGHT. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF GALE FORCE LOWS WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ011-020100-
GLACIER BAY-
1235 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-020100-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1235 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-020100-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
1235 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-020100-
ICY STRAIT-
1235 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-020100-
CROSS SOUND-
1235 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-020100-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
954 AM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-020100-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
954 AM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-020100-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
1235 PM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT
8 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-020100-
FREDERICK SOUND-
954 AM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY... SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-020100-
SUMNER STRAIT-
954 AM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-020100-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
954 AM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 1, 6:11 AM AKST, 6 hours 24 minutes earlier.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
611 AM AKST TUE FEB 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...HAVE A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL B.C
WILL CONTINUE TO TILT SE TODAY AND ALLOW THE JET STREAM AND A
LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN GULF.

 A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT AND ALL
AREAS ARE NOW RAIN WITH SNOW LEVELS CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 FEET. AS
THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE YUKON AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL SEE A FAVORABLE GRADIENT ORIENTATION TODAY
FOR S AND SE WIND. HAVE SOLID SMCR TO MIN GALES AND WIND ADVISORY
OUT FOR EARLY MORNING AND OUT TO NOON FOR PAKT-PAHY-PAHN. DO
EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF LATER TODAY BUT PICK BACK UP AGAIN THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING OCCLUDING COLD FRONT.

 THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GALES THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE ARE MULTIPLE SMALL WAVES
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE NE GULF WHERE 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
PAYA TODAY AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES TONIGHT. AN INCH OF RAIN IS
LIKELY FOR THE INNER CHANNELS.

 GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. USED MAINLY GFS GRIDS
TODAY WITH ITS WIND FIELD OVER THE GULF PREFERRED.

&&

.LONG TERM...A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS AND SHORT WAVES CLIMBING AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
FRONT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE. THE NEXT WILL ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY...AND THEN
AGAIN ON MONDAY. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE
PLENTY OF WARM...MOIST AIR. ACCORDINGLY...THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
CALLS FOR PRIMARILY RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW. DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE
PUBLIC ZONES.

WINDS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEDNESDAY FRONT AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AS THEY RELAX BY
THURSDAY MORNING. OCEAN ENTRANCES OF SOUTHERN
CHATHAM...SUMNER...AND CLARENCE STRAIT WILL SEE GALES AS
WELL...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE INNER CHANNELS SHOULD REMAIN AT
SMALL CRAFT OR LOWER. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INNER
CHANNELS AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST OUTER COAST MAY BE
NECESSARY. STRONG PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHEASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL
RETURN AGAIN TO THE COASTAL MARINE WATERS ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE
OF THE SUNDAY FRONT.

USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF FOR UPDATES TO PRESSURE AND WIND
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POP UPDATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE ON A GENERALLY WET EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF EACH
FRONT AS IT TRACKS OVER OR THROUGH THE THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017-019>028.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON AKST
         TODAY FOR AKZ027-028.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-022-036-041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-031>035.

&&

MM/FRITSCH

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.