Winter Storm Watch 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
406 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A LOW NEAR 80N 150W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW IN NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE TO SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 50N 160W WEST BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL FLURRIES TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
1019 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL DRIFT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY.
999MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH A
967 MB LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC TO BE NEAR SAND POINT BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A 967 MB LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AS IT WEAKENS. A 975 MB LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY THEN MOVE TO THE Y-K DELTA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE IN AS WEAK SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
SATURDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER. SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WEST COAST...WEAK LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BRING
FLURRIES TO THE AREA. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE END SO OPTED TO
KEEP OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT TAPERING OFF TOWARD
MORNING.

MID-RANGE...AN ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST TWO
SYSTEMS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE WEATHER IN NORTHERN ALASKA. THE
FIRST LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TRIPLE POINT IN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE GFS MOVING THE LOW TO THE KOTZEBUE SOUND BY 00Z WED WHILE THE
ECMWF TAKES THE LOW INTO THE INTERIOR. THE MODELS ALSO PICK UP ON
A STRONG NORTH PAC LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
COAST AROUND WED NIGHT...BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS HUGE WITH A LOT
OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AMONGST THE MODELS. CERTAINLY THE SECOND
LOW LOOKS TO BE A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM BUT THE IMPACTS ON ANY ONE
LOCATION ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN JUST YET DUE TO SUCH
HIGH MODEL SPREAD. THE LOW AT LEAST HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A
HIGHER IMPACT EVENT WITH A LOT OF WIND AND PRECIP. CB

FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECT THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD.

HYDROLOGY...NONE EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SDB APR 11