Wind Chill Advisory 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

693 
WWAK41 PAFG 240451
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
751 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

AKZ203-240600-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0073.000000T0000Z-111225T2100Z/
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK
751 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 



$$

AKZ204-241500-
/X.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0075.111224T0900Z-111225T2100Z/
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
751 PM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST SUNDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON AKST SUNDAY. 

* WIND CHILL VALUES...TO 50 BELOW.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH.

* TIMING...LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY AND WIND
  CHILLS WILL DROP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOW WIND CHILLS WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED. IF
OUTDOORS...COVER EXPOSED SKIN TO PREVENT FROSTBITE.

&&

$$

255 
WWAK41 PAFG 241247
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
347 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2011

AKZ204-241400-
/X.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-111225T2100Z/
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
347 AM AKST SAT DEC 24 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 

THE WINDS ON THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST HAVE REMAINED AROUND
10 MPH. WIND CHILLS HAVE NOT REACHED 40 BELOW.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 AM AKST FRI DEC 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A 494 DM LOW IS IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA ABOUT 150
MILES NORTHEAST OF BARROW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW TRACKS
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR NOME BY 12Z SAT AND TO NEAR KING SALMON BY SUN PM.
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS JUST A BIT FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW THAN THE GFS OR ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

SURFACE...A 977 MB LOW THAT WAS NEAR VALDEZ LATE LAST EVENING IS NOW
RAPIDLY WEAKENING WITH A SECOND LOW RE-DEVELOPING ON THE OTHER SIDE
OF THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON.  THIS SECOND LOW
CONTINUES TO FILL TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
NORTH PAC LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES EAST WITH A NEW
WEAKER TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT.  THE MAIN LOW CENTER FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIFT UP INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SAT.  A 1002 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT WEAKENS DISSIPATES BY THIS EVENING AND
IS GRADUALLY REPLACED BY RIDGING ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THIS
WEEKEND. A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

INTERIOR...BACKDOOR SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF
THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.  REPORT OF NEARLY 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN 7
HOURS LAST EVENING AT THE ROBERTSON RIVER BRIDGE. MORE RECENTLY A
REPORT OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT SALCHA FROM 6 PM LAST EVENING
THROUGH 3 AM THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE OVER WITH IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT SOME LIGHT
OVERRUNNING BONUS SNOWS LIKELY CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST AREAS DURING
ANY ONE 12 HOUR PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING COLDER AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BELOW ZERO JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS BY SAT...BUT THE
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL PREVENT THE
BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT. HARD TO PREDICT WHERE AND WHEN THERE
MIGHT BE SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP TO 40 BELOW IN ANY CLEAR AREAS.

WEST COAST...THE COLD BALL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE ARCTIC AND SPREADS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY A FEW SPOTS WILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND AND LOW
ENOUGH TEMPS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LOW
WIND CHILL CHILLS WILL BE FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH AS THERE
MAYBE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH FOR TEMPS TO GET LOW ENOUGH
FOR REAL LOW WIND CHILLS. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 207-208-210 STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEY WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

NORTH SLOPE...THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST
TODAY AND THEN REMAINS BOTTLED UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BEAUFORT SEA IS
PRODUCING WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND WIND CHILLS TO 55 BELOW AT
DEADHORSE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO DISSIPATE SO THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AT 3 PM LOOKS GOOD. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
WIND ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTH WIND...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH AND JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS.  NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EXPECTED FROM THE BROOKS RANGE NORTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ONLY FLURRIES. THERE MAYBE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE...THE HIGHEST NCEP RMOPS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
ARE WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  THE LOW WILL LIKELY DRIFT BETWEEN
ANCHORAGE AND GALENA.  THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR UNDER WEAK RETURN FLOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN
MORE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW AT TIMES.  IT SHOULD
ALSO PREVENT THE BOTTOM FROM DROPPING OUT TEMP-WISE...BUT ANY AREAS
THAT DO CLEAR FOR A WHILE WILL TURN QUITE COLD.  CFSV2 CONTINUE TO
INDICATE COLD TEMP ANOMALIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND INTO EARLY
JANUARY WITH MODERATING TEMPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT MONTH.  THE
NCEP RMOPS BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY RETROGRADE THE
LOW TO THE WEST OF THE MAINLAND WHICH WOULD MEAN A MODERATION OF
THE AIR MASS ALOFT ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THIS MONTH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THROUGH THE 22ND IS 13.1 DEGREES...WHICH IS
AN INCREDIBLE 16.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONTH TO DATE...IT NOW
TIES WITH 1986 FOR THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT FAIRBANKS.
EVERY DAY SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS HAD ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CB DEC 11