Wind Chill Advisory 62, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 PM AKST SAT NOV 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT.
COLD LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC PUSHES SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH 489 DM CENTER BETWEEN PRUDHOE BAY AND BARROW AT
THAT TIME. BY TUE AFTERNOON THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA.

SURFACE: A 972 MB LOW 450 MILES WEST OF COLD BAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST. AT 4 PM AKST SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL BE 150 MILES SOUTH
OF COLD BAY. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF. A 1007 MB
LOW WILL FORM 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF BARTER ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER SIBERIA.

NORTH SLOPE: SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH WILL
ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC COLD AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH TO THE NORTH SLOPE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF
BARTER ISLAND SUNDAY WILL BRING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE WILL TURN
COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING TO
MIDWEEK.

WEST COAST: THE ONLY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE FOR SOME
OF THE MARINE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE WEST COAST AND SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND. GALE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SIBERIA AND LOW OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER THESE MARINE AREAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OPEN WATERS WHERE WINDS WINDS ARE
HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS.

INTERIOR: ARCTIC LOW MOVING SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
FOR THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
NOT BE AS STEEP NEXT WEEK AS THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVES TO OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225.
&&

NOV 11