Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Fairbanks, AK

796 
FZAK52 PAFG 202150
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
150 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-211300-
150 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 981 MB LOW NEAR OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST SAT NIGHT...THEN REDEVELOP NEAR DEMARCATION
POINT SUNDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OVER THE NOATAK VALLEY WILL
STRENGTHEN...WITH A SMALL 984 MB LOW CENTER LIKELY NEAR
NOATAK SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ200-211300-
NORTON SOUND-
150 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-211300-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
150 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-211300-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
150 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-211300-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
150 PM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. 5 FT.
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

DJH/CC AUG 11

366 
FZAK52 PAFG 211022
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-220130-
222 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR DEMARCATION POINT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 994 MB 350 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM AKDT TUESDAY.
A 996 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND STRENGTHEN TO 990 MB THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA COAST AND EXPAND NORTH TO THE KOTZEBUE
SOUND MONDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-220130-
NORTON SOUND-
222 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER NOON. GUSTS TO 25
KT IN CHANNELED AREAS IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN DEVELOPING
WEST OF PORT SAFETY.
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ210-220130-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
222 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 20 KT EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND DIMINISHING
TO 10 KT BY NOON. W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT WEST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AFTER NOON. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT...EXCEPT SW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING NW 25
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE YUKON DELTA COAST. SEAS 8 FT...HIGHEST
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. RAIN. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. FOG. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ215-220130-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
222 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
FOG.
.MON...NW WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 5 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ220-220130-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
222 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...NW WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY NOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT...STRONGEST WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS 5
FT. FOG.
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

DA/CB AUG 11

682 
FZAK52 PAFG 212200
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-221245-
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 989 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE TO EASTERN NORTON
SOUND AS A 990 MB LOW BY 4PM MON AND TO THE NEAR SHISHMAREF AS A
993 MB LOW BY 4AM TUE. A LOW IN EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE BERING SEA MON NIGHT AND TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 987 MB
LOW BY 4PM TUE.

$$

PKZ200-221245-
NORTON SOUND-
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-221245-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
FOG...RAIN.
.MON...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-221245-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG.
.MON...W WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 3 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-221245-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
200 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. FOG.
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AUG 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
127 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE NOT SIMILAR IN HANDLING SURFACE FEATURES UNTIL AROUND
06Z SUN. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR COLD BAY WILL MOVE TO NEAR
KODIAK BY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW DISPARITY BETWEEN MODELS LEAVE
ANYONE GUESSING WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED EVEN BY
EARLY SAT MORNING. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR DELTA JUNCTION BY
SAT AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL WORK NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE BY EARLY SAT MORNING. CLOSED LOW AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CREATE DECENT NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER WESTERN HALF OF STATE
THROUGH SAT MORNING. RAINFALL OVER EASTERN INTERIOR MAY BE
RELATIVELY HEAVY IN SOME AREAS EAST OF EIELSON THROUGH SUN.

COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW IN HIGH ARCTIC WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO
NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLD AIR
DOWN TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY SUN AFTERNOON. AIR MAY
BE COLD ENOUGH TO BECOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH TO ABOUT POINT LAY BY MON EVENING.

THE COLD AIR WILL SPREAD EAST TO NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUE
AFTERNOON WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO ARCTIC PLAIN.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ245.
&&

CF AUG 11