Small Craft Advisory 80, NWS Fairbanks, AK

521 
FZAK51 PAFG 201013
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
213 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-210115-
213 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR COOK INLET MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR MAINLAND
TODAY AND TO NEAR MACKENZIE BAY AS A 984 MB LOW BY 10 AM AKDT
SUNDAY. THE LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT SEA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  

$$

PKZ225-210115-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
213 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...N WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ230-210115-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
213 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER NOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-210115-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
213 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ240-210115-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
213 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SEAS OFFSHORE. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ245-210115-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
213 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

DA/CB AUG 11

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 AM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SAT. THE CIRCULATION CENTER
AROUND THE LOW EXPANDS NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR. ANOTHER LOW NEAR
80N 155W (ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF BARROW) MOVES SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
WRANGEL ISLAND BY 12Z SUNDAY.

SURFACE...A 986 MB LOW OVER ST PAUL ISLAND AT 12Z THIS MORNING
WITH A 990 MB TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING NEAR
CHIGNIK. THE TRIPLE POINT LOW BECOMES THE MAIN LOW CENTER NEAR
KODIAK THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR SAT AND TO NEAR MACKENZIE BAY SUN MORNING. A RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL EXTEND
FROM NEAR BANKS ISLAND TO GREAT BEAR LAKE TONIGHT.

INTERIOR...A NICE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING KODIAK LOW. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST INTERIOR.
RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN AK RANGE SOUTH
OF BLACK RAPIDS AND IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY AND VERY MILD DAY FROM ABOUT DELTA JUNCTION NORTH. AREAS OF
RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL SET UP
AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH AREAS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUB-540 DM ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL BE ABOVE 800 MILLIBARS
SO THE LOW LEVELS REALLY NEVER GET ALL THAT COOL. MOST AREAS WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS WEEKEND WITH SNOW
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH.

NORTH SLOPE...ASIDE FROM LOCAL DRIZZLE OUT OF STATUS NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. AS THE LOW IN THE INTERIOR MOVES
TO THE MACKENZIE DELTA AREA OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  ELY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
INTERIOR.

WEST COAST...THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING KODIAK LOW HAS
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA. LOTS OF CLEAR SKY EVIDENT ON SAT PICTS
FROM ST MICHAEL NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN
STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES UP INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING AND SPREAD ABOUT AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS RUBY BY LATE SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW NEAR KODIAK MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. BY LATE SUN OR SUN NIGHT AREAS OF RAIN
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST TO THE BERING STRAIT AS
THE HIGH ARCTIC LOW DROPS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA.

MEDIUM RANGE...POOR MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE HIGH
ARCTIC LOW THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AT THE
START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE LOW LOOKS TO BE COMPLEX WITH MANY
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. WHETHER THE MAIN LOW CENTER
REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT OR MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND INTO THE GULF REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE LOW THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LOSE A LOT
OF DETAIL WITH TIME...AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A LOT MORE
DETAIL...BUT THE DETAILS VARY WIDELY FROM RUN TO RUN LEADING TO LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...THE LOW THAN EMERGES NEAR
THE MACKENZIE DELTA SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTH MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
WLY GALES TO PARTS OF THE BEAUFORT SEA COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO ISSUES.  SOMEWHAT STRONGER ELY FLOW IN MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE KODIAK LOW...BUT RH'S WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS. NO T-STORMS EXPECTED TODAY.  COOLER AND DAMP
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE ATTM.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ245.
&&

CB AUG 11